Redemption Trifecta and Steep Learning Curves, Part 1

My mettle as a Fantasy Basketball fanatic was recently tested as I engaged in an attempt to draft for 3 leagues whose live drafts started within the span of three hours. I was desperately trying to regain focus and emotional stability after my tumultuous GMTR Readers’ League draft.

We learn wisdom from failure much more than success. We often discover what we will do, by finding out what we will not do.

- Samuel Smiles

Dinner and a Draft

The first draft was for my original Fantasy Roto League with my buddies. My friend, Frogs, invited me over for a Draft Party that evening. We had pasta, chilli, and barbecued pork.

The league is a 13-man, 9-cat, rotisserie format, with 14 roster spots to fill (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C x 2, Util x 2 and Bench x 2)

Dinner started later than usual, but as soon as it did the dinner table was filled with lively and interesting conversation. As we were planning to break out the dessert, I received a text message from one of my buddies over at the league complaining about his internet connection and how he was having some problems. I replied with a short but sympathetic message. I then saw the clock on my cellular phone and it was 9:05! This is how the chaos began… (profanity has been dialed down in this version)

Me: Dude! Crap! It’s 9:05! The draft started already!

Frogs: Shit! Shit! Shit! – Runs to his PC

(I scamper to set-up my laptop)

Me: Oh my God! We probably missed the first round!

Frogs: No! Maybe even two rounds!

Me: Nooooo! <thought bubble: Thank God I pre-ranked!>

(I’m first to log-in and launch into the Live Draft applet)

Me: Dude! We missed two rounds. I am 6th and you’re 13th. I got Brand and Josh Smith. You got Granger and Bosh.

Frogs: I got who? I’m last? Oh hell no! Crap! If I knew I was last, I would have bounced Bosh and Al-Jeff! Ugh!

Me: Don’t worry man. There’s nothing that can go wrong in the first 2 rounds that we can’t compensate for in the next few rounds. It’s roto!

Frogs: Argh!

Side note: For whatever personal reasons he may have, Frogs NEVER pre-ranks. I always do. Perhaps after this harrowing experience, he may change his mind about pre-ranking.

Ok it wasn’t the best of starts for any Live draft, but I didn’t mind my core. Here’s how my team eventually panned out:

1. (6th pick) Elton Brand PF/C – AUTOPICKED. Not a problem here as far as I’m concerned. I don’t mind drafting a team (roto especially) around a solid big man and that’s exactly how I view Elton to be this year in Philly.

2. (21st pick) Josh Smith SF/PF – AUTOPICKED. I’m actually kind of surprised Josh reached me. I normally see him get reached for earlier in this league. I normally would have preferred to have paired my drafted top tier center with a top tier PG, but Josh was a welcome autodraft consolation. He solidifies my blocks cat while providing me with a lot of other strong contributions in various other cats.

3. (32nd pick) Rudy Gay SF/PF – Since the drop off of PGs passed me and I didn’t really feel like gambling on Jason Kidd. David West was still on the board but I felt that I had to start transitioning into some small guy numbers and Rudy was the best transition pick on the block. I really like his upside this year and I can’t wait to see what kind of season he will bring. I simply couldn’t pass up on his talent at this spot.

Upside Speculation

I’ve taken some time off after my rant about my GMTR Readers’ League team. I then went to see my therapist; who went to see his therapist and HIS therapist said that I should focus more on positive things. Think of beautiful images so that I can regain my positive outlook and my smile!

Jeez! and these guys charge by the hour…

What’s done is done. It’s time to move on.

And since fantasy draft weekend is just around the corner I decided to focus on something positive, well on a lot of things positive.

I suppose I’ve been reading a little too much GMTR (well apparently not enough, otherwise I should have picked Yao in the 8th round, where he belongs) <Stop! Let it go!> – anyway where was I? Oh yeah, a little too much GMTR (Is there such a thing?)… Pat has me conditioned to let go of the word “Sleeper“ from my basketball blogging lexicon. A player is no longer a sleeper, if his name is plastered all over the interweb’s sleeper lists… Duh!

As much as I wanted to come up with my “sleeper central” I decided to veer away from such labels.

Since I told my therapist’s therapist that I will start to think positive…. and what’s more positive in fantasy than UPSIDE?

Of Caffeine Crashes and Gag Reflexes: My GMTR Readers’ League Team

Let me start off with my B.S. excuses as to why I drafted so poorly.

1. Unlike for all the other drafters present, the draft was at 9 A.M., my time.
2. I woke up late
3. I was harassed to make it to work on time.
4. Grabbed a few cans of Mountain Dew and some grub to wake up my brain for the draft, thus risking being late even more. – stress levels were building up at this point.
5. Drank the said beverages too quickly – 10 mins before the draft began. – Was now wired as hell.
6. Was looking over my shoulder every few minutes as I actually had some work to do while the draft was ongoing.

After the draft was over I had to proceed with the rest of the day and with it my responsibilities at work. After I pissed away the caffeine from my body, I crashed and felt like crap. I took a look at my team and felt a bit of vomit  gurgle and griggle as if it wanted to come and slap me in the face for drafting a team like I did.

This isn’t false humility at all. I ended up drafting a “Not-so-big-ball” team. No it isn’t “Midball” either – just in case any of you want to get funny.

But WTF, is a “not-so-big-ball” team? Patience, all will be revealed in the end.

I was in 7th Draft Position. I’ve always felt the mid positions had the least control, and I’ve never been too happy drafting in the middle of the mob. And boy, was I ever in the midst of a mob of mean, monster-drafters!

The first 4 picks went pretty much as predictably as you can set your atomic clock by the certainty that Yao Ming won’t play 70 games this season.

“Mr. Defending Champ”, Patrick of GMTR, shocked us all by picking Marion at 5th! Elton Brand got picked 6th, and I was now in a conundrum as to either pick Dirk or KG!

Round 1 (Pick 7) Dirk Nowitzki – An excellent choice for a big to go with almost any type of small ball strat! He hardly misses any games and looks quite hungry this season to go for that elusive championship. Whether he achieves his goal or not is for another story altogether and another blog post. My point is, he’s motivated. So I now had my eye on Chauncey and Danny Granger, but alas, they both went before my 2nd round pick came around. By the way, so did Deron Williams. Yes folks, bad sprain and all. So I was left with reaching for Steve Nash or Rashard Lewis. Baron Davis was on the board but it’s my policy to stay clear of injury risks. I also found it way too early to go for Jose Calderon or even J-Rich!

I don’t know what came over me. As I ended up reaching for;

Round 2 (Pick 18) David West – I decided to go for another PF who shoots at decent percentages and doesn’t turn the ball over too much. I should have gone with Kevin Martin at this point, or even a Steve Nash pick wouldn’t have been so bad. Oh well, it wasn’t such a bad pick. I actually have David on my upside list this year.

“So big-ball it is.”, I told myself. “Ok let’s not force the small guys, but get some bigs with good FT% and hopefully we can get something going here.”

Enter gag reflex moment, stage left;

Round 3 (Pick 31) Yao Ming – I’m an idiot. I’m a moron. I got enchanted by Mr. 50 Games Played’s 80+ FT% and commited an unforgivable mortal sin. Yup, I’m the knucklehead who drafted Yao Ming in the 3rd round. I’m the guy I normally snicker at during live drafts. I’m the dork who now has to find some spiritual link with an omnipotent force in the universe to beg for Yao to play more games than Tom Brady. This should have been Andrew Bynum, Brad Miller or heck even Agent Zero games played ’til ‘09.

What the hell was I thinking? Really?

I don’t really know at this point.

I’m going to try and blame being too wired on too much Mountain Dew or something. But we all know that’s just a load of B.S. right there.

Ugh!

How retarded is it to trash your own pick in your own blog?

Never mind.

Let’s move on.

Please?

Round 4 (Pick 42) Mike Dunleavy – Great percentages (46 FG%) for a 3-point shooting guard…

Mike, I’m sorry but I’m not in the mood rave about my picking you while I still have some 2-week old egg-foo-yuck, trying to come up my esophagus.

Oh, to hell with this crap!

This is not cathartic at all.

Let’s just finish this.

This, I guess, is blogging in its purest form;

No real editing, just writing as the thoughts come to mind.

I can’t really see my team that clearly right now. I suppose it’s both the caffeine crash and the Yao pick.

I’m sorry readers. Unsubscribe to PitP. I won’t blame you. There’s nothing I can say or do that will ever re-earn your respect with regards to fantasy hoops.

Here’s my team as a whole, round by agonizing round, well after the 2nd at least. The guys in BLUE are the picks I’m pretty happy with at their spots. The guys in RED are the picks I’m not too happy about. The uncolored picks, I’m simply lukewarm about.

1. Dirk Nowitzki – 7th pick
2. David West – 18th pick
3. Yao Ming – 31st pick
4. Mike Dunleavy – 42nd pick
5. LaMarcus Aldridge – 55th pick
6. Jason Terry – 66th pick
7. Tony Parker – 79th pick
8. Anthony Parker – 90th pick
9. J.R. Smith – 103rd pick
10. Ricky Davis – 114th pick
11. Luis Scola – 127th pick – If I didn’t draft Yao in the first place, I wouldn’t have had to reach for Scola at this spot!
12. Andray Blatche – 138th pick
13. Earl Watson – 151st pick

In a nutshell, I suppose you can say my team is modeled after my first round pick, Dirk. It’s got some bigs who really don’t rebound or block much but shoot at good percentages; it’s relatively light on the TOs and it shoots treys. It doesn’t have any real passing or steals in the mix.

Just before I hit the Publish button, I’d just like to say that I’m not a quitter. I’m going to make up for my drafting blunders, fighting tooth and nail. I’m glad I can still trade and work the wire as the season progresses. It ain’t over ’til its over! And believe me, I’m gonna bring it.

For a more informative and insightful run down of his team, read Jedi’s more level headed analyis of his team.

Brendaaaaan! Buddy! Please do a complete league breakdown at 2RR so I can least watch someone else trash my team. I just can’t stomach to do it myself.

I’m going to take some painkillers (as I don’t have any Valium handy) and go to bed now. Hopefully this will all feel like bad dream tomorrow.

Inadvertent Rise

Somehow, I had my doubts that John McCain had Sarah Palin in mind as his first choice as his running mate. Pardon my political metaphor here, but I’m trying to make a point.

Somehow, I doubt that the makers of Red Bull originally foresaw it to be a great partner for vodka and end up being such a popular alcoholic cocktail. (Points in the Paint says: Don’t drink and drive! Stay home… Drink and draft!)

Somehow, I doubt that a lot of PG-fetish addicts didn’t expect Chauncey Billups to be on top of their lists (after Chris Paul, of course – shouldn’t that go without saying?).

Well somehow, due to to assorted injuries to “preferred” point guards, Chauncey has seen his fantasy draft value inadvertently rise.

Chill out! I'M not injured!

Everyone. Well fine, a lot of people. Ok! Ok! SOME people were actually giving old CB a downgrade coming into this season, with the expectation of his inevitable statistical decline. He wasn’t exactly close to the head of the pack when it came to the “pass-first PG” queue. But I suppose he didn’t like it too much and so he hired some Voodoo witch doctors to put hexes on the guys ahead of him in the line towards first round pickdom.

Baron Davis sprains his finger. Rumors point to him being ready for the Clips’ opening tip-off, but I’m not holding my breath. Mental note: “Jenny Craig diets (or diets in general) may be hazardous to your fingers’ health”. Deron Williams sprains his ankle and word on the street is that he will be gone for at least 2 weeks. (Sniffle, sniffle) Hopefully Steve Nash won’t be out playing soccer (or football to you non-Americans) and sprains his, uh, hair? I’m just kidding Chauncey. I know no one can prove any such preposterousness in a court of law.

What the "F" is wrong with my hair?!?

Seriously, what SHOULD the average drafter do with Chauncey Billups now that the other PGs are afflicted with sprain-itis? Is it time to begin earmarking him for the first round? Brendan of 2RR asked me that over at my Deron-injury-rant post and it made me decide to smoke some weed and ponder the pink melancholy of the chrysanthemum spirals of the universe… fine maybe that was a little bit too LSD and a little too less brownie-mix. Nevertheless, I gave our boy Chauncey, a long and hard second look.

What did stand out in my mind is that the healthy “passing PGs” are now OFFICIALLY more scarce than reliable centers with few drawbacks. Yup. Even taking into account that the average league has 2 C roster spots to fill.

Warning: Draft with Caution!

They’re out there! Landmines! Players who are O-ranked pretty high over at Yahoo! but are considerable risky picks. Draft them with caution and only at the safest of distances (rounds). Bust material waiting to come to fruition… Watch your step or as the case may be, your reaches!

• Baron Davis – Yes he had a great season last year. And yes, he DID play all 82 regular season games. He even produced numbers that were statistically superior to Allen Iverson’s. Mildly, but superior nonetheless. But he’s now devoid of Nellie-ball and has to adjust to playing with newer and not as run-and-gun-oriented teammates. Prior to last season’s fluke (?) shortage of DNPs, he was actually one of the poster boys for GP-unreliability. He finished last season in the TOP 10 (7th) of Yahoo! rankings and is currently O-ranked at 13th. Personally, I would prefer to bump him down around 10 spots.
• Yao Ming – Speaking of poster boys for DNPs… Do I even have to really discuss this one? He’s O-ranked at 23 despite finishing the season at 56th. 23rd pick is waaay too high for anyone to even consider picking Yao. That being said, if you do decide to be cautious about him, odds are the Autopick of the absentee live drafter will snatch him away and conveniently remove him from the draft pool and keep you away from any misguided temptation. Stay away from any “What if this IS finally his 80+ game year?” kind of self-talk. If it is indeed the case by season’s end, then congratulate Yao’s owner for an autopick well done and consider him for the year after. Jeez, he’s even the inspiration for this De-Motivational Poster:

Noooo! Deroooon! (Williams sprains ankle)

Crap! Crap! Double Crap! That makes four, right?

Anyway, you get my point.

My after-Chris Paul-PG-Man-Crush tweaked his ankle in a preseason game and had to be carried off the court!

c/o desertnews.com

c/o Associated Press

I generally liked to reach for him when I decide to go small ball in late drafting position. Ouch! I own him in 2 leagues so far! And I’m sure many of my co-Deron owners must be wincing in pain after finding about this horrible turn of events. There’s still no news of a definitive prognosis with regards to the extent of the sprain. I’m keeping my fingers crossed that he will be up and about for the Jazz’s first tip-off. I’m just thankful this I don’t play fantasy football and Deron isn’t Tom Brady. That being said, any time or games missed by your early picks can’t be good…

Stay tuned as we closely follow his recovery. I dread to see the day that I’ll have to pick-up Brevin Knight (no offense, Brev) to salvage a fraction of what I’m missing from Deron.

Stinky Tee’s Expert’s League (Roto Format)

I was invited to join the Stinky Tee’s Expert’s League. I was pretty honored when I read the email in my inbox asking if I was interested, as I don’t really see myself as much of an expert at all. Just an avid fantasy-head, really.

The league was set-up over at Yahoo! It’s a 12-man roto format, with 9-cat array, and 13 roster spots (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C x2, Util x2, Bench x 3). We just finished our live draft several of hours ago.

The Rotisserie format is all about building a BALANCED team. For roto, I wanted to have a team with reasonably good percentages because those 2 cats are generally injury resistant. I also didn’t want to ignore TOs. So I thought of patterning my draft close to 2RR’s H2H draft over at the GMTR mock, but without punting treys. As I formulated this game plan, I suddenly realized – or more like remembered – how challenging roto drafting can be!

This is my first roto draft for the season and I considered myself pretty rusty as I have been preparing mostly for H2H leagues recently. Yes both formats are THAT much different!

All 12 managers made it to the live draft! This was nice, but at the same time I found myself missing the reliable O-rank auto-pick predictability of the absentee drafter. So this was definitely more challenging than your garden variety public league. That’s for sure.

I was a bag of nerves as I had just woken up and didn’t have any coffee in my system yet. – I know it’s not a convenient excuse to draft poorly – So sue me!

I found myself with 2nd drafting position. Here’s how my draft went.

1. (2) Amare Stoudemire – You can’t really go wrong with the “Best Center” in fantasy hoops to start off your team. Other people might have preferred to pick Kobe or LeBron at this spot, but I figure Man-beast is of comparable quality and has the added bonus of being C eligible.

I generally like picking a PG and a C in my first 2 picks so I had my eye on Chauncey Billups and Jose Calderon. But I also was thinking of grabbing David West like Brendan (of 2RR) did at the mock or even Kevin Martin who I am really high on for this year. In hindsight I should have picked either of them instead of getting locked on the best O-ranked player available which was…

2. (23) Jose Calderon – I know that he would probably been available in the 3rd and would be good to put up efficient guard stats (projections of: 9.4 APG, 1.2 3PG, 1.4 SPG 1.5 TOs) at 50% FG and 90 FT%. After CP3 I rate him as the 2nd best model of efficiency at the PG position. I am higher on his upside than on Chauncey’s expected downside. If I went for KevMart or David West at this spot and committed to grab JC in the 3rd I probably wouldn’t have been tempted to grab…

3. (26) Marcus Camby – I know the “experts” are not too hot about him this year – then again when were they ever?. Camby in the 3rd is a fair downgrade to match all the worries. And I said to myself, “This is ROTO! GPs aren’t as critical here as in H2H.” As long as Camby gives me 11.5 boards while swatting 2.8 balls a night (notice I projected a downgrade from last year), over 60+ games then his totals are pretty decent. Plus his 1.5 TOs were just too sexy to resist! Ha Ha Ha!

So my laughter subsided, when I realized I just bounced 2 effective “non-scorers” in Jose and Marcus. With low TOs come low point contributions… Oh well, it’s been 3 rounds and I think I can still salvage this. At this point I want some Treys to balance my big man + assists numbers. I had Hedo on queue, coz his 5 dimes are just sexy like that. Unfortunately he got picked before my turn came, so I chose a reasonable alternative in…

4. (47) Mike Dunleavy – Just the right three point shooter that the doctor ordered for my team, Ultra-efficient. Fantastic FT% (83.4) and how many guys can toss the ball from behind the arc twice per game and still maintain 47.6 FG%? I like this pick. At this point I was looking to bounce to another worthwhile scorer to improve on that cat. I had Michael Redd on target but I changed my mind at the last minute and chose to go with;

5. (50) Andre Miller – Yes I know he’s NOT a scorer and his scoring will go down even further now that Elton Brand’s in town. His 49 FG% from the guard position was just so tasty to pass up in the fifth. Mo-will and Devin Harris were taken in the 4th; and Dre was the last guy from my tier 4 PG list who was available. It’s too bad he can’t shoot treys. No worries though, as I was able to grab

6. (71) Mike Miller – Another solid 3-point shooter who has great FG% (50.2 last season). He’s a solid rebounder and a decent passer. I like my Mikes. This one, I expect to do well in Minny. I expect him to get a lot of kick-out passes as the opposing defense collapses on Al-Jeff. On the flipside, he’s got a good enough court sense to find Big Al when he’s open and drop him a couple of dimes every now and then. I feel my treys are more solid now. It’s just that I feel that I’ve ignored points a bit too much.

Tired of Meat and Potatoes?

What’s wrong with meat and potatoes? Nothing really. Actually it’s more than enjoyable if the meat is a thick, juicy 16 oz. steak (prime rib, no less!) accompanied by a huge baked potato that’s slathered in sour cream and crisp bacon bits. In fact, it sounds quite appetizing. Doesn’t it? So you say to yourself, “Heck, I can eat that everyday!” But picture having that for 5-6 seasons in a row… Still as appetizing? Perhaps.

Are you the adventurous type who likes to explore new cuisines that the world has to offer? Are you the type of person who craves for variety and new experiences? Always looking for new flavors to explode onto your palate to excite and tantalize you? Do you enjoy a variety of textures in your food as different gustatory stimuli dance with your taste buds in a way that makes you just want to get up and get jiggy with it?

Okay. Let’s not get carried away.

Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball has been the “meat and potatoes” of my fantasy basketball experience since 2003. Is there anything wrong with that? No. Actually, they’ve improved on the game, its interface and its drafting JAVA applet over the years to give its players a richer gaming experience of pretend basketball team manager.

For those of you out there who want a different experience of Fantasy Basketball or of drafting its players, there are alternatives out there for you to choose from.

GMTR Mock Draft: Final Analysis

Here are all the teams in the GMTR Mock draft with their complete rosters and a few comments. Remember that we agreed to play out the draft in Yahoo league with no trades or free agent pick ups. We also agreed to play out ALL the players we drafted, so there will be no bench spots and in the end 5 Util slots instead.

For those of you who just found this post, I did a round by round, pick by pick analysis of the first 8 rounds of the draft. Here they are:

ROUND 1; ROUND 2; ROUND 3; ROUND 4; ROUND 5; ROUND 6; ROUND 7; ROUND 8

If you want to read comments made the drafters regarding their picks, check out the Mock Draft Board.

TEAM 1: Epicte

PG: Chris Paul

SG: Jamal Crawford

G: Randy Foye

SF: Ron Artest

PF: Rashard Lewis

F: Corey Maggette

C: Andrew Bynum

C: Chris Kaman

Util: John Salmons

Util: Kenyon Martin

Util: Ryan Gomes

Util: Jordan Farmar

Util: Ronny Turiaf

Comments:

It looks like a small ball team. But aside from Chris Paul, its talent lies in its 3 forward slots with 3 pseudo-specialists: Artest (Stls), Lewis (3s), Maggette (FT%). Kaman and Bynum have decent FT percentages for big men and that’s a good thing for small ball teams. Epicte also can win in the rebounds category against some more focused small ball teams. Among his later picks, I like Crawford and Salmons.

Battle of the Bloggers

I just finished our Live Draft for the Battle of the Bloggers League from BallHype. It was the first live draft I entered in Yahoo! since it opened its doors. I must say that I love the JAVA applet interface they’ve got going on. I like the fact that they highlight the average pick of the various players. Actually it was Nels who pointed it out along with some money quotes:

“Chris Paul is 1.4 not 1.0? There are people out there who are drafting wrong.”

“There are actually people out there who are picking Eddy Curry at 136!”

Anyway, going back to the league. It’s a 10-man, head to head, with the standard 9-cat array. We’ve got 11 roster slots (PG, SG, G, SF, F, PF, C, Util x 2, Bench x 2) One Center was a surprise which kind of caught me off guard because I only noticed it during the draft itself. I should have payed more attention to the settings. My bad.

The Bloggers involved in the league are the following:

Yours truly of Points in the Paint, TEAM: Points in the Paint – yeah I know, so original!

Nels of Give Me The Rock, TEAM: Give Me The Rockettes

Dennis of Dropping Dimes, TEAM: Bout it Bout it

UtesFan89 of The Utah Jazz, TEAM: Suicidal Penguins

Ethan of Newsports.com, TEAM: The Ollie McClellans

Mookie of A Stern Warning, TEAM: …a stern warning

Zach of Talkhoops.net, TEAM: Kev Ollie’s Mustache

Ryan of Hoops Addict, TEAM: Hoops Addict – another exercise in originality

Scott of Waiting for Next Year, TEAM: WaitingForNextYear

Zorgon of Blue Blitz, TEAM: Blue Blitz

Give their blogs some clicks and some love. ‘Coz their teams won’t be getting much love from mine once we’re matched up! (woohoo! Trash Talking via blogging is just so unfair!)

With 10 managers and 11 roster spots the draft was a pretty good round-up of an intelligently drafted TOP 100 (give or take) for head to head. The talent and caliber of the players drafted will be pretty concentrated so some Monster Teams were drafted.

Unfortunately, around 4 of the guys missed the Live Draft, but it was a blast nonetheless. To those who were present, good drafting guys!

It was priceless seeing Suicidal Penguins (a hardcore Jazz Fan) land the first pick, agonize, and have to choose Chris Paul! Hahaha! At least he made up for it by taking Boozer in the 2nd.

I was in 9th draft position. Not great, but still was quite workable.

I’m pretty happy with my team. I simply improved on the small ball plan I got going over at the GMTR Mock – improvements like not drafting Samuel Dalembert for a small man team! LOL! Anyway, allow me to introduce you to the Points in the Paint team that will be pwning this league…

Round —– Player (Pick)

1. Shawn Marion (9)
2. Deron Williams (12)
3. Kevin Martin (29)
4. Rudy Gay (32)
5. Mehmet Okur (49)
6. Mo Williams (52)
7. Mike Miller (69)
8. Mike Bibby (72)
9. Troy Murphy (89)
10. Anthony Parker (92)
11. O.J. Mayo (109)

That’s my team. I’m hoping to have some fun in this league.

Here’s to wishing everyone in the league some luck! (they’ll need it, ha ha!)