Redemption Trifecta and Steep Learning Curves, Part 2

Try not to do too many things at once. Know what you want, the number one thing today and tomorrow. Persevere and get it done.

- George Allen

As the last 2 picks of my first draft went on uneventfully, I now had to focus my attention to my second draft of the evening. This one was for an 18-man head to head with 9 cats and 10 roster spots (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, Util, 2 Bench). Notable setting is that this league has daily roster changes instead of the weekly set-up. So even our bench guys get some playing time over the week.

I enter the live draft and find that Yahoo! randomly determined that I would be drafting 6th overall. This is how my draft went.

To Reach for the Unreachable Star…

1. (6th pick) Elton Brand PF/C – While EB was picked for me by the computer in the first draft, this one was completely by choice. I really like Elton this year, but I have to be honest that I am a bit scared that I don’t have any concrete statistical information to back-up this perceived upside. I can account for his recovery from his injury last year but I can’t say with any real certainty that I know how well or how poorly he will produce in Philly. At any rate, my investment in EB made me decide to go Big Ball.

2. (31st pick) Jason Richardson SG/SF – My reasonable target for this pick, David West, was grabbed by the guy drafting just before me. There were no reasonable Bigs left on the board at this point. I like J-Rich’s rebounding for his position and I consider him to be a solid scorer so he fit the bill.

3. (42nd pick) Chris Kaman C – This was a very painful pick to make. I am clearly reaching at this point. And for who? Chris Kaman? WTF? He was the best above 15 PPG; at least 10 RPG; at least 2 BPG guy on the board. My next pick was 25 turns away. 25! That’s like 2 rounds of standard drafting! It was highly unlikely that Chris would come back to me at that point assuming I wanted to pick the “best player available” at this point. I wanted to stay committed to the cats I wanted to lock down or dominate. J-Rich was already a deviation. Another one would be diffusing the strategy altogether. This reach right here will weigh heavily on, if not determine the successful fruition of this draft.

4. (67th pick) Emeka Okafor PF/C – Yes, I did it once. Yes, I did it again. A reach for 10 RPG and a hair under 2 BPG. This is commitment. This is perserverance. In the back of my head I voice was screaming, “This is madness!” – Enter classic scene from the movie 300. – In the end this is absolute domination of 2 maybe 3 cats that no one in an 18 team spread of talent can compete with. The argument of domination vs value comes to mind, but let’s save that discussion for another post.

5. (78th pick) Jason Terry PG/SG – It was time to fill up the PG slot and Jet’s got good percentages and shoots a decent amount of treys to support my investment in J-Rich. At this stage, it was pretty clear to me that I was going to be punting assists and go for some backdoor three point shooting to go along with my big man numbers.

6. (103rd pick) Ricky Davis SG/SF – At the time I made this pick I was so sure he would be a stud. Unfortunately, the first week of the NBA has proven my most consistently drafted player to be a bust! Oh well, I can’t get everything right.

7. (114th pick) Kevin Love PF/C – I wanted another big man and I felt like gambling a bit on Kevin. This pick could have been a Drew Gooden or a Udonis Haslem. Something tells me that I should have gone with some of the old reliables instead of paying some youth tax.

8. (139th pick) Matt Barnes SF – I needed some more treys and I knew that Matt was going to be starting over Grant Hill in Phoenix. I was hoping that Matt would benefit from playing with the “Nash Factor” and end up as a worthwhile contributor.

9. (150th pick) Andray Blatche PF/C – I wanted another block contritbutor and I just crossed my fingers and hoped that this season Andray will end up a lot less erratic in terms of his nightly performances.

10. (175th pick) Kyle Korver SF – I wanted a little bit more treys and Kyle was arguably the best chucker available on the board.

Post draft update: I traded Kevin Love for Anthony Parker; dropped Ricky Davis for Mo Pete; dropped Blatche for Josh Boone and picked up Ramon Sessions for Kyle Korver.

GMTR Mock Draft Analysis: Round 5

This is one competitive bunch of drafting freaks! You’ve got a whole buffet of assorted strategies banging around in the paint (draft pool). These guys are tenacious. I’ve even got my own faves: Jeff’s team and SA Spurscasters. Looking sharp there boys. Some teams are coming around nicely, others not so much. I suppose there are mixed feelings from the drafters at this point. Some guys wished this was a real league so they can see their strategies come to fruition, while others are probably wishing they could do over certain picks and are glad that it’s just a mock draft. For the guys who fall into the latter category, fret not fellow drafters! My first round pick, Allen Iverson, probably put it best:

It Ain’t a Game, It’s Just Practice!

I’d like to thank some of the other drafters for chiming in with their comments. I appreciate the interaction, keep it up. I must admit that I’m learning a lot as I find myself having my fair share of “Doh! I wanted him!” moments – I found myself saying it a lot especially in this round .

Let’s keep the ball rolling with ROUND 5.

ROUND 5

Pick	Round	Fantasy Team	Player	Position
49	5-1	Epicte	Chris Kaman	C
50	5-2	2nd Round Reach	Andris Biedrins	C
51	5-3	Jeff’s Jawai-nots	Manu Ginobili	SG
52	5-4	REAL Batman	Gerald Wallace	SF
53	5-5	Bucko	Maurice Williams	PG
54	5-6	Doneycat	Mehmet Okur	PF/C
55	5-7	GiveMeTheRock	Michael Redd	SG
56	5-8	OKC Thunder	Tyson Chandler	C
57	5-9	Sexy Time	Andrew Bogut	C
58	5-10	SA Spurscasters	Stephen Jackson	SG
59	5-11	Points in the Paint	Peja Stojakovic	SF
60	5-12	Alpha_Terrance	Lamar Odom	PF

Who do you like, Baron Davis or Gilbert Arenas?

You’re in the tail end of the 1st round or somewhere early in the second and you feel like picking up a high scoring PG. Dwyane Wade and Allen Iverson have been picked ahead of you so your left with the choice of picking either B-diddy or Agent Zero. Who would you pick?

Gilbert Arenas was a former 1st round shoe-in, an elite scorer who loved to light it up from beyond the arc. He’s was a point or two shy of averaging 30 PPG through the 04-06 seasons, while averaging at least 2.5 treys and 6 assists a night; factor in 1.95 SPG and you had an elite PG to say the least. Unfortunately, he was sidelined for most of last season due injury. He played injured and his stats took a dive like you wouldn’t believe. In spite of last year’s performance, or lack there of, for that matter; the Washington Wizards signed him to the biggest deal in the NBA over the off season – $111M over 6 years. Is he healthy enough now to return to his old form? He’s had the summer to hopefully recuperate to 100%, but he doesn’t have Dwyane Wade’s Olympic stint to prove that he’s past last season’s injuries. Until training camp actually begins, we still have no clear and definitive picture of Gil’s recovery. He says he’s healthy, but his late season attempted comback only ended in more damage to his body and production. Well he’s coming back to pretty much the same team he left early last season so he shouldn’t have any problems gelling with his old teammates.

Baron Davis, on the other hand, has never really been 1st round material but he ended last season’s performance like monster of a first rounder. He averaged 21.8 PPG, 7.6 APG, 2.3 SPG and 2.1 treys a game, thriving under coach Don Nelson’s up-tempo, run-and-gun offense. Sweet line? Well the stat of all stats for the new Baron of LA is that he played in all 82 games last season, his first above 70 games since his junior NBA year way, way back in the 01-02 season.  He stated before last season started that he was in the best health of his career and his 82 GPs must have been a juicy meal his doubters had to eat along with huge serving of STFU sauce. This former (?) injury-prone PG left the Golden State Warriors and signed with the L.A. Clippers to be its new centerpiece. So it’s a new team, new coach, and a fresh start for Baron to prove that he’s worth the fat contract he signed. He obviously won’t be quarterbacking a small ball offense anymore with Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman (Both Centers) being the 2nd and 3rd best players, respectively, on his new team. He’s definitely got more to prove than Arenas but there are more changed variables in his status. Can his skills, motivation and competitive spirit carry him to another awesome fantasy performance this year?

OK so both of these guys roughly shoot just as terribly from the feild, pretty much in the low 40s. Gil’s got the sweeter FT% at 80+ (8 attempts) vs 75+  (5 attempts), but Baron’s got the better passing ability and playmaking skills – by a margin of at least 2 more dishes a game. They both turn the ball over at least 2.5-3 times a night and look to average arounfd 2 treys and 2 steals an outing. Gil’s the superior scorer and has the overall better health track record, but as I said Baron’s been recently in the BEST health of his career and is in a new team where he can arguably up his PPG to about 24-26 a night.

Hmm…. this is a tough one, isn’t it? I would generally want to stay away from both of these guys from this year’s draft altogether due to that dreaded injury risk hanging over both of their heads. But if there was a gun to my head and I really had to take an early risk on one of these guys on this year’s draft, I guess I would personally have to pick Arenas. I have him edging Baron out ever so slightly based on his superior FT%, the stability of his team, finally his performance and health 2 years running prior to his injury. But that’s my pick, who’s yours?

Consolation Prize or Upgrade?

Camby now a Clipper

The L.A. Clippers, somehow pull off a miracle and land a TOP quality center in the form of Marcus Camby, from the Denver Nuggets. They got him in exchange for the option to exchange 2nd round picks in 2010. (More on NBA.COM)

WTF?!? Yup, that was pretty much my initial reaction… Man, talk about getting something for nothing. This trade is up there with the Pau Gasol – Kwame Brown exchange of last season. I guess the Nuggets are giving up on a shot at the playoffs this season… well I suppose they are reorienting their plans for the future. I’m pretty sure they could have gotten a much better deal for parting with such a solid defender as Camby. Hmmm… I wonder what the Nugget management was smoking when this deal went down? In fairness to them, it IS a bit too early to spell out what they are planning for the franchise’s future. There are still moves and deals they can make before the season begins to get them on track to make a run for the playoffs this year.

L.A. Exodus

Corey Maggette signs with GSW… Elton Brand signs with the 76ers… Baron Davis finds himself signing with a now, dead-end team… Can the Clips snag some hope in the free agency market i.e. Josh Smith, Emeka Okafor… ?

The L.A. Clippers have a gutted roster, large salary cap space, and no silver lining in its immediate future.

Elton Brand‘s departure marks an immediate shift in the franchise’s prospects for future development. He was supposed to be a great cornerstone for them to build around. They even sought out the services of star PG, Baron Davis, with the hopes of presenting the air of being western conference contender. But, alas, Brand is off to the city of brotherly love; where I expect his nightly 20-10-2 nightly production to be a huge boon to the franchise’s bid to be a serious threat in the east. I expect his presence in the 76er’s roster to impact positively on everyone else there too. Andre Iguodala’s TOs will finally take a dip downward as he no longer has to be the sole offensive option. He’s always been a good passer, so expect him to find Elton open in the paint and drop one or two more for Brand stuff it easily. Andre Miller’s assists should als go up – how can they not with a solid big man like Brand as the recipient of his dishes? Hopefully, Samuel Dalembert’s games played (GP) will go up as he can now count on another solid inside presence in the paint to help him stay away from injuries. Overall, Brand and his teammates can be expected to put up marginally better fantasy numbers than last year.

Corey Maggette has flown the coop and is off to the Golden State Warriors (GSW).  He will hopefully help fill the scoring void left by star PG, Baron Davis’ departure. Somehow, it obviously won’t be the same as Baron’s court sense and play making abilities will be sorely missed. It appears that there will much more playing time for Monta Ellis at the PG slot on the distant horizon. The warriors will need Monta’s ability to break down the defense through his quick-footed penetration into the paint. Corey, on the other hand, was the Clips’ leading scorer for several (injury-ridden) seasons. Fantasywise, I consider Corey to still be a big question mark. Not so much for doubts about what he can produce, but more for the lack of his health’s reliability. I am hoping for Monta to evolve and become a far superior Tony Parker (high FG with decent passing ability). Stephen Jackson will pretty much have a re-do of last year’s performance, which isn’t too bad by any fantasy standard as he was able to light it up from beyond the arc while providing good “D” (stls) on the other end of the floor.

Now that the Clippers’ two best players have left the team, who is left? Well if Baron Davis pushes through with signing with them, then I suppose he will end up being their “new” cornerstone. 24 PPG, 7.5-8 APG, 1+ SPG, 2+ 3ptPG; high TOs and low %s all around are what I expect BD to deliver. Chris Kaman has proven that he is capable of being a solid inside presence (while healthy) as shown by his early performance last season before he was slowed and sidelined with back problems. If he can stay healthy, expect him to be a solid fantasy contributor. Cuttino Mobley was able to be part of a good backcourt tandem with his former teammate in the Houston Rockets, Steve Francis. Perhaps, there’s still a little bit left in him for a new chemistry with Baron to blossom. I know it’s a bit of a stretch but hey, we’re really scraping the bottom of the Clippers barrel here.

Clippers can look at this EXODUS as a challenge to renew itself under a different paradigm. It’s not what they wanted, but we all know we don’t always get what we want…