Points in the Paint

Fantasy Basketball Opinions, Strategy & Tips

GMTR Mock Draft Analysis: Round 3

Posted by Erik on September 21, 2008

Ok now managers’ strategies are becoming a bit clearer, or not. The third and fourth rounds should round out the cores of their fantasy teams.

ROUND 3

Pick Round Fantasy team Player Position
25 3-1 Epicte Rashard Lewis SF
26 3-2 2nd Round Reach Jose Calderon PG
27 3-3 Jeff’s Jawai-nots Tim Duncan PF/C
28 3-4 REAL Batman Jason Kidd PG
29 3-5 Bucko Rasheed Wallace PF/C
30 3-6 Doneycat Kevin Martin SG
31 3-7 GiveMeTheRock Antawn Jamison PF
32 3-8 OKC Thunder Brandon Roy PG/SG
33 3-9 Sexy Time Joe Johnson PG/SG
34 3-10 SA Spurscasters Dwight Howard C
35 3-11 Points in the Paint Rudy Gay SF
36 3-12 Alpha_Terrance Pau Gasol PF/C

Pick 3-1: Rashard Lewis – After “botching up” his Chris Paul 1st round pick with a Bynum 2nd round reach, Epicte bounces back with a solid choice for the 3rd round. I can’t think of anything wrong with taking Rashard at this stage in the draft. He’s been consistent throughout the last few years and is my first choice among the guys who pour on the 3s. His low turnovers actually complement Chris Paul’s efficiency in that department.

Pick 3-2: Jose Calderon – I must admit that I’m a bit torn about seeing Jose Calderon this early in the draft. The conservative part of me says its too early, while the speculative-aggressive side of me goes “Sweet!”. Taking this pick in the context of what has transpired so far in the draft, the Calderon “snatch and grab” move isn’t too bad. All the other top tier PGs “have left the building” and by all indications surrounding Calderon’s expected upside, 2nd Round Reach may not get another shot at him in the 4th round. He wanted a solid PG to go with Amare and David West and this WAS the round to get him.

Pick 3-3: Tim Duncan – I would have preferred to see Dwight Howard get picked to round out the monster team that’s being anchored by LBJ and Nash, but Timmy-D isn’t so bad a C option to go with those two either. I like Jeff’s team so far. I’m a fan. I’m actually excited to see this team develop.

Pick 3-4: Jason Kidd – You can pretty much just rewind the “train of logic” spiel I ran for Jose Calderon and replay it here. There would be one major significant difference though. I have Calderon on my upside list, torn thigh and all; while J-Kidd’s just picked up residence in my “Aging and on the decline” list. REAL Batman still probably considers Kidd to be at least on the lower end of the TOP tier guards. I, on the hand, rate him lower. It’s a difference in opinion. Plain and simple. I feel some good value players have been painfully passed up to make this Kidd pick. I would have liked to see Pau Gasol, Kevin Martin, Brandon Roy, or Rudy Gay get picked to complement his Kobe-Granger tandem; all of whom are much better value picks than Kidd in my book.

Pick 3-5: Rasheed Wallace – A bit early for this aging guy in a team that wants to get on the rebuilding bandwagon. Yes, I do admit he goes with the “Punt the points” strat, but now you’ve got a guy who’s production is expected to go nowhere but down. My preferred alternative to this Sheed pick would have been Atawn Jamison. Yeah I know he scores! So sue him! But he would have added a three point shooting dimension to the Marion-Camby duo while improving boards and steals and still preserving your low TOs.

Pick 3-6: Kevin Martin – I’m a biased fantasy fan of Kev-Mart so I’m already shocked to see him fall this far late into the draft as it is. People are excited for players like Danny Granger and Rudy Gay because they’re stars in rebuilding teams, well Kevin’s got the better experience and track record and Sacramento’s going to be carried on his shoulders for the duration of the regular season. He’s got no real drawbacks fantasywise and he’s simply a stud in the FT% cat like you wouldn’t believe. Nice pick.

Pick 3-7: Antawn Jamison – Whether intentionally or unconsciously GMTR landed a “hedge pick” for his second round choice of Caron Butler. I guess Nels’ fantasy team will see its ups and downs along with the Washington Wizards’ performances this year. Antawn’s a solid choice in the third round for almost any team, but GMTR’s going to get the most benefit from him as he off sets the variance in his Wizards players nightly production.

Pick 3-8: Brandon Roy – He’s the main man over at Portland and due for that “third year bump” in his stats. A nice complement to Dirk, but it seems the Thunder will be needing much more from him especially now that his 2nd pick, Gilbert Arenas will be out longer than expected. Roy’s not a bad pick at all, but we’ll have to stay tuned and see what direction the Thunder wants go with its Dirk-Brandon core.

Pick 3-9: Joe Johnson – After JJ displayed last season that he’s back to his 82-game, combo guard stat scorching ways; I knew he’d be a prime target for the 3rd round. KG-Chauncey-JJ looks like a pretty decent start for a team so far.

Pick 3-10: Dwight Howard – He’s a solid choice to solidify and concretise Josh Smith’s big man stat contributions. SA Spurscasters is now sporting a front court that has taken the lead in this draft with 22 RPG and 5 BPG between his two young stallions, and that’s a tough act to follow. Neither Josh nor Baron are known for impeccable their FT% so Dwight doesn’t really go against the flow, but merely cements the team’s commitment to tank that cat. I like seeing Dwight on this team. Not a bad choice at all.

Pick 3-11: Rudy Gay – My pick. Here’s a misstep on my part. I wanted Rudy to be my segue pick into my Big Man stat contributors. I made this pick thinking Pau Gasol would fall into my lap in the fourth because I was metagaming (a bit too overconfidently) and thinking that Alpha-T, who led off with 2 PF/C’s, would want some PG or SG numbers and pick accordingly. I thought Rudy would be a more favored target by my neighbor and wanted him locked in. As you can see I was wrong. 😦 Well sour graping aside, I really like this Gay guy from Memphis! Not what you’re thinking, I mean it in the fantasy sense – ok that didn’t sound much better than it should have. Seriously, what’s not to like? He’s a multi-cat contributor who’s the main man at Memphis and entering into the “magical” 3rd season. With all of his upside this season, how can I be righteously disappointed about this choice?

Pick 3-12: Pau Gasol – As I honestly admitted, I DID NOT see this one coming. Alpha-T barks off in the Draft Board that this was a value pick and that he simply couldn’t allow such talent to slip through his fingers. Hmm… Maybe I should have had this train of thought. His choice of Pau in the 3rd ends up more than just a value pick for his fantasy team. He locks down boards and field goal % while improving on Carlos Boozer’s shot blocking deficit. Mean big man strategy right here folks. Let’s see how his team shapes up. Stay tuned for round 4!

Advertisements

5 Responses to “GMTR Mock Draft Analysis: Round 3”

  1. Brendan K. said

    I don’t plan on defending every pick on your comments, as I’ll be doing my own breakdown later, but I will defend the Calderon pick. Not taking him there would have meant dropping to the next tier of PGs that started with Kidd, and since I wanted to build on the percentages that Amare and West gave me, hoping jKidd would fall to me didn’t sound like much fun. Calderon is about to join the 10 assist per game club and has zero shortcomings. Billups would have been my pick instead of West if he fell to me, as then I could take Jason Richardson or Rashard Lewis in the 3rd and been better in more categories, but instead I locked down percentages (seriously, calculate the current roster averages) and that ain’t bad.

    I know you’re not knocking me, but come on! Jose at 26th overall? I GOT HUEVOS.

  2. Erik said

    Like you said buddy, I wasn’t knocking your Calderon pick. I LIKED the pick and frankly I’m a bit jealous. (*blushes with a sheepishly devilish grin*). I can see where you’re going with your team and its forming quite nicely.

    There’s no need to defend a pick by pick. I just wanted to do a pick by pick / round by round breakdown to have give/get insight into the drafters’ thought processes (or lack thereof).

    I’m looking forward to reading your views on the chaos and magnificence that transpired during the mock. Try to be gentle. 😛

  3. bucko said

    My Sheed pick was probably too high. I might have even been able to get him with my pick next round. The give up points strategy is risky if both Calderon and Kidd are gone by my third round pick, which in this case they were. I wanted Calderon but as a fallback I was pretty sure Kidd was going to be there. When Batman picked him right before my pick I was floundering. In a live draft I might have tried to trade down once my targets were gone.

    With that being said, If you take out the points category Rasheed was 14th overall last year in 9 cat, which is pretty impressive. Jamison on the other hand was 42nd. BTW…they both averaged exactly 1.5 threes a game last year, so I still added the 3-point dimension. Jamison also hurts your FG more, they both shot about the same but Jamison takes 4 more shots a game. Actually when you take out points Jamison is only better in one category, Rebounds and considering I already have Marion and Camby, Rebounds isn’t really a category I am hurting in. BTW Sheed also had 1.3 more blocks a game. They really aren’t close when you take points away, Sheed is just way better.

  4. Erik said

    Interesting Sheed-Antawn breakdown for your strat. Sheed > Antawn it is. I was thinking that it may have been possible to land both of them, but that’s just speculation at this point.

    I was just leaning on the boards bit more because the escalation has gotten pretty fierce among the teams with the “big man”-centric strategies. I felt that I may have wanted to keep up with them in that cat. Seems you can possibly find blocking specialists far deeper in the draft than the rebounding type.

    With regards to FG%, picking Sheed takes away your team’s being competitive in that cat since your team has no real FG% contributor to offset Sheed’s damage – and that’s when I seriously considered Jamison because I was looking at it as a dump is a dump.

    I’ve had little experience and even less success with the “punt the points” route, so I am really looking forward to see how your team ends up.

    Cheers!

  5. […] 1; ROUND 2; ROUND 3; ROUND 4; ROUND 5; ROUND 6; ROUND 7; ROUND […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: