Points in the Paint

Fantasy Basketball Opinions, Strategy & Tips

GMTR Mock Draft Analysis: Round 4

Posted by Erik on September 22, 2008

At this point it should be very clear what the drafters are up to – well at least to them it should. Whether they’re going for a balanced, well rounded team or whether they have isolated and targeted specific categories to dominate or at least be competitive in; the drafters have chosen and locked the cornerstones for the teams they intend to build. Remember this is 9-cat, head to head.

ROUND 4

Pick Round Fantasy Team Player Position
37 4-1 Alpha_Terrance Carmelo Anthony SF
38 4-2 Points in the Paint Paul Pierce SF
39 4-3 SA Spurscasters Andre Iguodala SG
40 4-4 Sexy Time Yao Ming C
41 4-5 OKC Thunder Jason Richardson SG
42 4-6 GiveMeTheRock Vince Carter SG
43 4-7 Doneycat Mike Dunleavy SF
44 4-8 Bucko Ray Allen SG
45 4-9 REAL Batman Brad Miller C
46 4-10 Jeff’s Jawai-nots Hedo Turkoglu SF
47 4-11 2nd Round Reach Andre Miller PG
48 4-12 Epicte Ron Artest SF

Pick 4-1: Carmelo Anthony – I’ve never owned Melo on any of my fantasy teams before, so I actually had to look up his stats. I was almost ashamed that I had to, but when I did it all came back to me why he’s never found a home on any of my teams and the embarrassment quickly ebbed away. He’s a scorer, no argument there, but his peripheral stat contributions have increased incrementally over the years. It was at this point that I expected Alpha-T to begin diversifying from the big man numbers of his 3-headed front court – which Melo doesn’t exactly do. But as the 3rd round showed, I’m not exactly Nostradamus when it comes to predicting what my draft neighbor will do next. What does Melo do for his team? Well he improves his points and boards while preserving his FG% investment. I rate Melo as only a partially good fit/improvement for Alpha-T’s big man menagerie.

Pick 4-2: Paul Pierce – My pick. When I saw my “grab Pau Gasol in the 4th to balance out the team” plan fly out the window, I decided to adjust my strategy and not “force” a big man pick at this point. Instead, I went with Paul Pierce – who I saw as a good value pick for the early 4th, and opted to really go small ball (contrary to what my team name may imply). It’s important to be flexible during a draft. Understandably, its more difficult when the draft is Live and you’re under time pressure. If you can’t be flexible in a mock draft, you probably can’t in a Live Draft either. Back to Paul – He fits into the investments I’ve made in the categories of points, FT%, 3s, assists, and steals. Picking him gives me a clear picture of what to go for from now on.

Pick 4-3: Andre Iguodala – This wins my “best fit award” for round 4. Iggy fits SA Spurscasters’ team like a Trojan Magnum on my… never mind let’s not open myself up to any wise ass repartees. Seriously though, Andre adds sweet hustle numbers to SAS’s collection while improving assists and fits in the “I don’t need a good free throw shooter” discount he’s got going on – Andre dropped 10 points in this % between 06-07 by the way. J-smiddy, B-diddy, Dwight-Howie, and Andre-Iggy; hell even the nicknames go together. Here’s a drafter with a plan. And it’s been a great pleasure seeing him execute it. Kudos!

Pick 4-4: Yao Ming – He’s China’s great wall and every fantasy ball player’s favorite/most hated high risk-reward Center pick. You know he can pour on those numbers. Unfortunately DNPs are among them year in and year out. Everyone’s got their own personal “Yao threshold” in fantasy hoops, it simply varies from drafter to drafter. I guess the best person to explain this pick is Sexy Time himself, and if I may quote from his comments on the Draft Board:

“I thought long and hard about this pick and really, there’s no easy way to justify the immense risk you take with Yao Ming. He’s Top 10 when he’s on the court, but he has to be ON THE COURT. However there was simply no other talent left on the board that struck me as a can’t miss player in the 4th round. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not banking on Yao playing 80 games at all. But despite all the games that he misses, save for last year’s season ending injury, Yao has always gutted it out during March-April (incidentally the H2H playoffs). With that in mind, I’m pretty confident that I have drafted a solid enough core that can withstand the games Yao will surely miss. Finally do not underestimate the fact that the Rockets will be in serious championship contention this year. Expect them to gut it out even more as money season approaches.”

– Sexy Time

He’s said more than a mouthful on his Yao pick and I feel adding to it would simply be anticlimactic.

Pick 4-5: Jason-Richardson – He’s fallen pretty far considering the other spots he’s been picked in GMTR’s Mock Draft Round Up. He’s a great scorer and source of treys. OKC Thunder’s grabbing him this late gives a minor rebate to his “botched” Arenas pick in the second. This pick is a good one for the team. It helps with those small man numbers that we know he’ll be missing from Agent Zero for the early part of the season making the Thunder a little bit more competitive and a little less FUBAR. Keep up the hard work Thunder! Everyone loves an underdog – unless your the NY Knicks of course.

Pick 4-6: Vince Carter – Frankly, I’m now a little bit baffled if not completely lost as to where GMTR (Nels) is going with his team. He starts off nicely with Brand, then follows through with Caron, hedges Caron with Antawn… then gets his token “good player on a bad team” with Vinsanity? I don’t even want to speculate at this point as to what Nels has up his sleeve for fear of “Didn’t you see that crossover move I just broke your ankle with?” type of backlash comment I might get when all is said and done. For now let’s all just follow what Nels has in store for GMTR’s team as it gets unraveled through his succeeding picks.

Pick 4-7: Mike Dunleavy – Doneycat’s clearly got the hots for those %s as you can see from his Bosh and Kev-Mart picks. Based on that, Mike D fits well into what he’s got going so far. He chips in two 3s a night will keeping those percentages and points cats pretty much intact. Mike may not have been the best value pick at this spot, but he was probably the best in terms of Doneycat’s strategy. This is where H2H starts to veer farther away from Roto. The 4th round is where it clear as to what categories the drafter is favoring and he should draft accordingly.  Here’s another man with a plan. Nice pick.

Pick 4-8: Ray Allen – So Bucko’s established that he wants to go via the “punt the points” route for his team. Now the question is Ray Allen the best pick for his team at this point? I would have preferred to see other names join his roster before Ray-ray’s. Names like Artest, Biedrins, G. Wallace, Stephen Jackson, Andre Miller seem to  resonate better for his budding plan. Allen strikes me as being a bit too one dimensional to be picked this early for a team with this strategy. Bucko may have gotten a similar boost in treys from say a 5th round Peja Stojakovic pick. I would have picked differently at this spot if were going his route, but that’s me.

Pick 4-9: Brad Miller – REAL Batman wanted a Center pick here in the 4th and he ended up choosing Brad Miller. I think Brad will improve on last season’s performance contrary to views of his anticipated decline. The Kings will need him to be a bit more aggressive on the offensive end of the court to compensate for Ron-ron’s overdue departure from the franchise. While he’s not a “big man’s big man” he does do things that other centers in this draft range have a diffculty doing; which is shoot at 84% FT and dish out 3.7 APG a night while logging a respectable 1 BPG and 1 SPG on the other end of the court. He preserves REAL Batman’s FT% investment while adding some assists from the 5 spot. I’m a bit lukewarm about this choice. It’s not mindblowingly amazing nor do I have anything really negative to say about it.

Pick 4-10: Hedo Turkoglu – Dress me up in a pink tutu and call me Sally! Jeff’s team is keeping abreast of my assists and 3s while kicking me in boards and blocks – making my small guys feel rather inadequate. Yes mommy, its not nice to compare, but I can’t help it. His team is my closest rival in 3 of my 5 targeted cats. And somehow he looks like he’s having an easier time getting his job done. Hedo is a sweet fit for his already impressive core. He adds more treys while improves on his assist cat. – Thank goodness he doesn’t do any favors for Jeff’s FG% and TOs (Pardon the spiteful competitor’s editorial). He’s got his cats and strat in order. Frankly, his team’s starting to scare me. Good on you mate! Nice draft so far.

Pick 4-11: Andre Miller – Oh look! A point guard sighting. It has been several picks since the “Kidd/Calderon fall-off point” and this is the first guy I expected to emerge from the next tier in PGs. He’s a very solid secondary PG and Andre shoots at a decent % from the field and rebounds well for a PG (4 RPG)  while adding good numbers in the assists and steals department. It’s just too bad he can’t shoot a trey to win him a free cheese steak sandwich over at Philly. No complaints here, because if he DID drop bombs then he would have been gone from the pool a lot sooner. Andre’s got some good upside with EB joining the “Philly Force” as his dishes should go up but his scoring can also be expected to inversely go down.  2nd Round Reach seems to value %s, some boards, perhaps steals, but obviously assists so far from his picks. He seems to be staying clear of the treys cat so far. I wonder if he’s dumping the cat completely or just believes that treys are the easiest cat to scrounge for in the later rounds of a draft. Stay tuned for ROUND 5 to see who he picks next.

Pick 4-12: Ron Artest – I pretty much use Yahoo’s exclude function in pre-ranking for 1-2 players. Ron Artest is one of them. So before I go on a girly PMS-like tirade about Ron-ron and taint my analysis, I think it would be best to hear from Epicte himself a more level headed appraisal of his choice for round 4 and leave it at that.

“When McGrady and/or Yao go down, this pick is going to be even sweeter. But at 48, the STLs/3s and PTS from Ron Ron is definitely worth it.”

– Epicte

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10 Responses to “GMTR Mock Draft Analysis: Round 4”

  1. bucko said

    Explaining my Ray Allen pick. I started by wanting a guard this round. My first 3 picks were big men and If I didn’t get some guards soon it was going to be slim pickins. Like I explained with my Sheed pick, I had really hoped to get a guard last round.

    If you take out points Ray Allen finished 48th overall last year, but he was 17th among guards. His high 3s, low turnovers really help my team and I needed someone who also shot good FT to give me a boost.

    Picks on a team that gives up points may seem a little strange because people over value points.

    You mentioned Andre Miller, who would not be as good of a pick he finished 85th overall(w/o points) and 32nd among guards.

  2. Erik said

    Fine Andre was bit of a stretch. But Capt. Jack has similar 3s and more steals than Allen. Wasn’t he viable alternative in your view? – Assuming you aimed for Peja in the 5th?

    So 3s, rebs, stls, blks, TOs – possibly FT% are your target cats?

  3. Brendan K. said

    You’re all over it on this round’s analysis. Nels’ knows he’s been going off the rails, as the “pick the best player left” strat only works out if those guys have good name value to trade for what you inevitably end up needing. Jeff’s doing small ball right and Doneycat is picking very nicely…

  4. bucko said

    3s, Rebs, Stls, BLks, TOs I need to be really good in. I’d like to be good enough in FT and maybe assists to win once and awhile. With Shot attempts being so low FG will be a seesaw. There will be weeks Rasheed shoots well and me team is really good, there will also be weeks when he buries it. I might even be able to salvage it a little more later in the draft, we will see.

  5. Erik said

    @ Bren: I fairness to Nels, that kind of strategy is not a bad one in itself. I do however feel it is best optimized in Roto as opposed to H2H.

    @ Bucko: Stick with it man! I am learning a lot, myself, as your team takes shape. Challenging strat to pull off though. Perhaps I can twist your arm into doing a breakdown of the strat as a feature article here on PitP? 😛

  6. […] finally, I get ripped – and rightly so – in the Points in the Paint Mock Draft Analysis. As I noted in one of many chat sessions that take place at the GMTR 2008 Fantasy Basketball Mock […]

  7. Brendan K. said

    Nels’ strat is fine, but after picking Brand that early (for most people- I LOVE that pick) in the 1st, I would have thought he had some plan to focus his picks. In this instance, the “best players” by the GMTR rankings ain’t yielding all that much. And I have to say, I’m pretty stoked about Big Z falling to me. I can’t wait to break this whole draft down.

  8. Michael said

    Hey Erik,

    Just now saw this. Look forward to more of your comments/critiques on our mock draft picks. My team (SA Spurscasters) could probably put on a pretty sweet dunk contest.

  9. Erik said

    Hi Michael!

    You’ve got a mean collection of uber-athletic freaks alright! Keep up the good drafting!

  10. […] 1; ROUND 2; ROUND 3; ROUND 4; ROUND 5; ROUND 6; ROUND 7; ROUND […]

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