GMTR Mock Draft Analysis: Round 6
Posted by Erik on September 25, 2008
This is pretty much the mid point in the mock draft. Drafters are rounding out their key picks and are picking to fill up empty roster positions. There are going to be fewer “controversial” picks so I’ve decided to simplify my breakdown into “Why I like this pick?” and “Why I don’t?” type of commentary.
|62||6-2||Points in the Paint||Samuel Dalembert||C|
|63||6-3||SA Spurscasters||LaMarcus Aldridge||PF/C|
|64||6-4||Sexy Time||Devin Harris||PG|
|65||6-5||OKC Thunder||Tracy McGrady||SG/SF|
|69||6-9||REAL Batman||Josh Howard||SG/SF|
|70||6-10||Jeff’s Jawai-nots||Al Horford||PF/C|
|71||6-11||2nd Round Reach||Monta Ellis||PG/SG|
Pick 6-1: Greg Oden – Why I like this pick? Greg has a lot of potential to become a solid fantasy Center. He should theoretically contribute to any team’s rebounding and shotblocking needs from the get-go. He will help offset Alpha-T’s 1st round Carlos Boozer (0.5 BPG) pick. He WILL start for the Portland Trailblazers who desperately need an inside presence so he “should” get solid minutes. Why I don’t? Greg’s not 100% just yet and he still has to prove that his microfracture surgically repaired knees are ready to withstand the rigors of a full NBA season. He doesn’t have Amare “Man-Beast” Stoudemire’s proven track record of full recovery to quell worries regarding his health stability. It may have been a little too early to snag Oden in this draft.
Pick 6-2: Samuel Dalembert – My pick. Why I like this pick? My team doesn’t have a Center and he fills one of the 2 C roster spots on my team. He doesn’t get to the free throw line often enough to really hurt my FT% investments and he adds rebounds and blocks dimension to my team. He was the “best Center available” in the pool at the time of this pick. Why I don’t? Sam doesn’t help my team with the small ball numbers I’ve targeted. Grabbing him was a backdoor attempt to sneak in blocks as an additional category vs teams that weren’t too big man oriented. – This idea blew up in my face in rounds 6 and 7. LaMarcus Aldridge or Troy Murphy would have been theoretically better options at this point in the draft. If this were a “real” league I would probably try to move him for either of the above mentioned players immediately after the draft’s conclusion. Unfortunately I do not have such a luxury. Lesson learned.
Pick 6-3: LaMarcus Aldridge – He no longer bears the hype he carried coming into last season, as we now all know what he is “effectively” capable of producing. Why I like this pick? He should wind up as a solid PF for the SA Spurscasters. Oden’s presence is only expected to improve his game and not hamper it. He helps SAS’s points and blocks (a little bit) categories. Why I don’t? Aside from points, LaMarcus doesn’t add much to what SA Spurscasters has going on for his team. I would have prefered to see him pick Devin Harris who contributes more in his cats of choice + he improves on Baron Davis’ 8+ APG contribution. He needed a PF at this spot, so I’d say that Al Horford or Emeka Okafor would have been better options.
Pick 6-4: Devin Harris – If I may quote Sexy Time’s comment on the Draft Board: “All Upside. That’s what this pick is.” Why I like this pick? Well frankly I agree with what Sexy Time said. This wins my best value pick for the round award. Devin will help Sexy Time’s Chauncey Billups 2nd round choice distribute the ball for his fantasy team while chipping in some treys and steals while he’s at it. I fully expect Devin to also score a bit more considering he will be VC’s main source of support this year. Why I don’t? N/A
Pick 6-5: Tracy McGrady – Why I like this pick? Talented players have been flying off the pool left and right. If you believe in Tracy McGrady’s talent and potential for a “healthy” season then this is the spot to take him, because odds are he won’t be available next round. The Thunder believes in what T-Mac is capable of bringing to the table and he did just that, grabbed him while he could. I can’t fault him for falling for the temptation that is T-Mac’s 20/5/5, 1+ treys, 1+ steals healthy fantasy line. Why I don’t? I don’t trust T-Mac’s back as far as I can block Yao Ming’s mid range jumper. The numbers ARE tempting but his DNPs are equally scary.
This is more of a risk-reward pick as opposed to a value pick as far as I am concerned. Things may or may not pan out for the Thunder as he already has to deal with missing his 2nd rounder, Gilbert Arenas. Adding more injury risk to his fantasy squad is quite bold indeed.
Pick 6-6: Troy Murphy – It seems that GMTR has veered from “pick best player available” to “let’s get my hands on some of my favorite/pet players” thing going. Why I like this pick? Troy is NOT the best player available. And to me it is a sign that GMTR has woken up with some renewed focus and has targeted some key cats. That alone is enough reason to give some credit where credit is due. Why I don’t? Well it’s got to with Troy’s health issues. He’s had his ups and downs with those games played due to assorted injuries here and there. Admittedly though, his 75 GPs last season (his most in the last 5 seasons) is a good sign that he may finally be getting healthy.
Pick 6-7: Kevin Durant – Why I like this pick? He’s the BEST player on a BAD team. He’s the main man over at OKC. He should produce some mean points for Doneycat and he also preserves his FT%. He’s coming into his sophomore year in the NBA and therefore he’s clearly got some room to improve both in real life and in fantasy basketball. He will have a chance to hopefully to statistically diversify his game as he learns that “D” can win games just as much as offense. Why I don’t? He’s the BEST player on a BAD team. He WILL get double teamed a lot so his shot selection will still be questionable and consequently his FG% will remain suspect this season. TOs will be high. It’s a good thing those aren’t categories Doneycat’s invested in. He is basically drafting KD for his points and FT% though. So it’s a decent value pick at least.
Pick 6-8: Andrei Kirilenko – Why I like this pick? Here is my perfect fit for strategy pick award winner for this round. AK really goes with Bucko’s “punt the points” strat. I doubt that any other fantasy team was eyeing him this early. AK gives Bucko the #s in the cats that he wants with the exception of boards. Why I don’t? Durability plain and simple. AK’s never really been known for it and somehow his previous injuries have left him as a shell of his former defensive dynamo self.
Pick 6-9: Josh Howard – Why I like this pick? Well he’s hitting his prime in terms of age and he’s still the solid number 2 guy over at Dallas. Even though his peripheral numbers took a bit of a hit last season, I fully expect him to make a fantasy comeback this year. He has the capability to add more 3-point and steal contributions to his game. Why I don’t? He is turning into somewhat of a “bad boy”. Not like the demonic-i-will-eat-your-baby-and-brawl-with-the-fans-Ron Artest type, but in a more juvenile thug-lite sort of way. Although it isn’t a fantasy related issue per se, bad behavior can lead to suspensions and suspensions tend translate into DNPs, so I would personally draft him with a grain of salt.
Pick 6-10: Al Horford – Why I like this pick? This is another one of those all upside-type of picks in my opinion. He’s in an up and coming team and he and Josh Smith are pretty much Hotlanta’s functional front court (sorry Zaza). He’s an NBA sophomore now and his numbers have nowhere to go but up. I think this is a very respectable spot to take him. He doesn’t necessarily supplement Jeff’s small ball thing, but like me he had to fill up a C slot. Why I don’t? N/A
Pick 6-11: Monta Ellis – Why I like this pick? Synergy, synergy, synergy. He fits great with 2nd Round Reach’s %s strategy and fills up his SG slot. Monta was expected to just explode (fantasywise) this year due to Baron Davis’ exodus, unfortunately those expectations are put on an indefinite hold due to his Moped accident. Why I don’t? This is may be big risk for a 6th rounder. His injury is unprecedented for an NBA player and he may actually be gone longer than Gilbert Arenas. There are too many question marks surrounding the probable success of his rehab and how it will affect the explosiveness that Monta is known for.
Pick 6-12: Corey Maggette – Why I like this pick? He will flourish under “the Don’s” system. He will have the license to shoot – well just like everyone else. He will get to the line and be the FT% boon that he’s been known for. You can expect him to take more 3-point shot attempts (it emerged last year) albeit without as much reckless abandon as Capt. Jack, but open court ball is probably what the doctor ordered for Corey. Why I don’t? Speaking of doctors, Corey has had the habit of needing to see one for extensive periods of time, EVERY season! He has had more under 70 GP seasons than above 70 over the course of his ENTIRE CAREER. That’s injury prone in my book, most likely yours too.
* As I was wrapping up this round’s analysis I got to thinking that I may not have to analyze and critique the drafters’ “trash picks” in the later rounds. I will probably just do a summary post of some sort with a synopsis of my learnings in this mock draft. I may or may not do a ROUND 7, so stay tuned!