Points in the Paint

Fantasy Basketball Opinions, Strategy & Tips

GMTR Mock Draft Analysis: Round 7

Posted by Erik on September 30, 2008

Sorry for the delay guys. A new job and a loss in the family kept me away from the keyboard a bit too long.

For everyone following the GMTR Mock Draft, I’d like to inform you that this Mock WILL BE VALIDATED. It (our rosters) will actually be input into a fantasy league and run. There will be no transactions or waiver pick ups allowed. This will be to preserve the “purity” of our picks. All 13 slots will be utilized – meaning there will be no more bench – everyone drafted gets played every week. This was agreed upon by the mockers during the the 8th or 9th round so it may affect strategy in choosing the succeeding picks in the rounds after. I will round up the results of the league come season’s end so don’t forget to watch out for it.

So here’s round 7.

ROUND 7

Pick Round Fantasy Team Player Position
73 7-1 Epicte Jamal Crawford PG/SG
74 7-2 2nd Round Reach Zydrunas Ilgauskas C
75 7-3 Jeff’s Jawai-nots Jason Terry PG/SG
76 7-4 REAL Batman Emeka Okafor PF/C
77 7-5 Bucko Jamario Moon SF
78 7-6 Doneycat David Lee PF
79 7-7 GiveMeTheRock Mike Bibby PG
80 7-8 OKC Thunder Mike Miller SG/SF
81 7-9 Sexy Time Jermaine O’Neal PF/C
82 7-10 SA Spurscasters Tony Parker PG
83 7-11 Points in the Paint Michael Beasley SF/PF
84 7-12 Alpha_Terrance Kirk Hinrich PG/SG

Pick 7-1: Jamal Crawford – This guy’s value in the 7th round is just fantastic! I never thought I’d see the day that Jamal would be in an “all upside” situational outlook for an upcoming season. Well here it is! This is pretty much a two round upward bump for him from last year’s draft position (I drafted him in the 9th in 4/8 leagues last year), and as he showed, he’s well deserving of the valuation upgrade. The stars have aligned and this may be the season for JC to truly shine. I know it isn’t saying much right now, but he IS the best player in the Knicks – a team with a new offense oriented coach. If you’re playing it small and you can look past JC’s FG% and his TOs, he will be a fantastic source of points, 3s, and some dimes to boot. He’s simply a great catch at this point in the draft.

Pick 7-2: Zydrunas Ilgauskas – What makes Z a good pick here is that 2nd Round Reach got him with an outlook of no great expectations. Which is how people SHOULD approach drafting him. Since Z isn’t his primary or even secondary center, everything that he brings to the table (some REBS, BLKS, FT% for a C) is all effectively gravy at this point. Even though it seems that the 7th round is a bit too early to pick up a “gravy” player, Z was the LAST available center that qualified to fit 2RR’s stringent percentages-centered strategy. He assures himself of a very respectable back-up center (if this were a “real draft”) instead of him having to “skim the scum” from the waiver pool in the event of an injury. In the perspective of team strategy, this is a good pick.

Pick 7-3: Jason Terry – Prior to last season, Jet’s always been a quiet under appreciated ROTO stud. So I am excited to see Avery Johnson leave and finally see an end to the “off the bench BS!” Jason had to go through. His main strength in ROTO is his more than respectable percentages. He would have been great for 2RR, but he went with Z. Jeff’s team on the other hand does not maximize JT’s %s contributions as he has opted to not be competitive in the FT% cat. Should he have gotten more aggressive and went for a true passing PG? Perhaps. I may have gone that route myself but I must admit it would have been difficult to pass up on Terry’s sheer value at this point in the draft.

Pick 7-4: Emeka Okafor – While I understand that REAL Batman needed a C at this point. I am not too happy with his move to throw in the towel on his free throw %s by picking Emeka. Drafting Kobe and Danny Granger to start your draft simply screams go with FT%s cat, in my humble opinion. Kobe is great at it and so is Danny. And since the wasn’t ever competitive in the blocks cat, I cannot see any good strategic reason to go with Emeka at this point other than seeing him as the “best available C”. Not too happy with this one folks.

Pick 7-5: Jamario Moon – As each round passes by I get better insight as to how Bucko’s choice of strategy (punt the points) has made things so convenient for him to get the picks he wants. His steadfast focus on grabbing guys who are rated as optimal picks when points are taken out of the equation is pretty good so far. That being explained, I feel that Jamario is both a bit risky and too early at this point. He was a mini-break out guy last season and with Jermaine O’Neal’s acquisition, that may have possibly been his “Boris Diaw Wonder Year!” Although I personally would not like to see him slip into the shadows of obscurity, that risk is very real and very early to swallow as far as I am concerned. Jam would most likely still be available for Bucko to grab next round.

Pick 7-6: David Lee – He’s a true cult favorite and Doneycat doesn’t seem to exempted from membership of the said cult. He is everyone’s favorite pet Knick and with good reason. How can you not adore this underestimated and underutilized white boy with THAT much hustle and energy? He’s always at the cusp of being locked in as a solid big man year in and year out. As a card carrying member of the “Give Lee More Minutes!” club, how can I in good conscience say anything bad about this pick? How can anyone?

Pick 7-7: Mike Bibby – After GMTR’s Brand and Butler bounce, this is by far my favorite of all of his picks. Not only is he getting a great quality PG at this point in the draft, he is also capitalizing on Bibby’s imminent rebound for this year. This is my favorite pick for the round on sheer value AND upside. We will see this season as MB gets fully integrated into Hotlanta and how he will emerge as a fantastic component to great back court duo with Joe Johnson.  This is NOT too early to grab Mike. I recommend that pretty much anyone go and snag him at 79th.

Pick 7-8: Mike Miller – I was actually in a lengthy debate as to whether I was going to go with Peja or Mike as my pick 2 rounds back. In the end, it was the “CP3 factor” that won Peja the pick. Mike will be the clear 2nd scoring option for the T-Wolves as he adds to a now solid inside-outside combo with Al Jefferson. Both guys will make each other better. He is a good value 3-point shooter pick who does contribute some respectable peripheral categories. I like this pick.

Pick 7-9: Jermaine O’Neal – I have never been a fan of this guy in both real life and fantasy. I guess I never will. I can’t seem to swallow picking a C who has shot arguably worse from the field in his last 2 injury-riddled-seasons than Allen Iverson’s last one. As long as Sexy Time isn’t holding great expectations for him like considering him as a “sleeper” of sorts, then I suppose it’s ok to hope and pray that he does get rejuvenated in his new playing environment and that he will swat around 1.8 balls a night. His staying healthy will be the key defining factor as to how much effective value Sexy Time is getting at this stage. As of this point I see him as a little too much risk and a little too less reward. The Center feeding frenzy may have forced JO’s being bumped this high in the draft and so I suppose it makes the choice a bit more palatble considering there are some mitigating circumstances surrounding it.

Pick 7-10: Tony Parker – The “Tony Parker Debate” has been decently covered in the comments of this post in GMTR. Now that all of that has either settled things or clouded your valuation of Tony even further, I must add that 82nd is the latest I have ever seen TP get drafted in fantasy ball. He should step up his game a bit while Manu’s on surgery recovery duty. So I feel that this is a pretty good spot for a Tony pick, IF he will ever fall this far deep in any of your drafts.

Pick 7-11: Michael Beasley – My pick. This pick right here was the result of a combination of some panic (yes, I’m the idiot who panicked at a Mock Draft) and a back door plan gone awry. I was deluded into thinking that I could sneak in the blocks cat into my team’s repertoire by grabbing either Emeka and/or Jermaine at this point. And as you can see that plan flew out the window faster than the Knicks can get rid of Stephon Marbury. I now needed to fill a PF/C slot and am locked out of any reasonable block fortifying options. So in a moment of anguish and frustration, I opted to roll the dice and go with Michael Beasley. Was it a good choice? Either you tell me or we’ll all just watch it unravel as he plays out his rookie season with the HEAT.

Pick 7-12: Kirk Hinrich – Alpha-T eventually needed to pick up some guards and this was apparently the round he saw fit to go and do some PG shopping. I am vary wary of Kirk for this season. And it’s more than just about having a half-empty-glass mentality following the fall out of his last season’s fantasy crash. The Bulls are just too crowded in the back court for anyone to foresee clear cut rotation. This situation only adds to the cloud of uncertainty hovering over Hinrich’s fantasy future. I actually like T.J. Ford better over Kirk coming into this season’s draft.

*If you’re following my breakdown of the Mock draft ongoing at Give Me The Rock, then you are more than likely a fan of GMTR like me. So definitely stay tuned because I have an absolute “MUST READ” post coming very soon for all of my co-fans to enjoy!

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10 Responses to “GMTR Mock Draft Analysis: Round 7”

  1. terrance said

    i agree about nels pick at 79 with bibby. His best pick and one of the better picks of the draft. Crawford has some upside as well, you have to like a G who is the best player on his team and dantoni as the new coach. Lots of possibilities there.

  2. dyeyk2000 said

    ei erik,

    sad to hear about your loss, condolences man. i hope you’re doing good in your new job.

    are we having no benches? i don’t think removing benches “taints the purity” of the draft 😛 if anything, we need benches when we take injured players in and out of our lineups. having no benches means injuries are uncounterable handicaps. this is especially true for me, since i drafted yao ming thinking i could rotate him in and out of my lineup during injuries. 😛

  3. seanlb said

    yo.

    good advice. i guess Emeka blocked my foresight for a round or so. using last year’s numbers my FT% will be 0.7902.
    That could be 0.8088 with Mike Miller instead of Okafor, who was taken later in the round. And there are still 2 picks left.
    We’ll see how it works out.

  4. endub said

    Dyeyk2000, you make a good point there. I will have to think about that one, since, as you say, it is a legitimate draft strategy, especially in H2H.

  5. bucko said

    I love that you are doing this. I do feel that I end up defending my pick every round, which I’m fine with.

    Moon ranked 31st overall with points taken out last year. To put that in perspective Josh Smith was 30th and Deron Williams was 34th. So you can see why I thought it was important for me to grab him for my team.

    Now whether or not he would have been there at my next pick is debatable. I picked Moon 77th, my next pick was 92nd. If you look at the GMTR Mock Draft Roundup you will see that in the other three drafts Moon was taken 78th, 86th and 98th. With my next pick being at 92 it would have been a gamble. Since there wasn’t anyone else really jumping out at me for this pick I went with Moon.

  6. Brendan K. said

    I’ve you’re looking for reassurances, Beasley is only a very slight reach at the end of the 7th. He’s an all-upside forward who the Heat will commit to seriously this year. He’ll have drawbacks (probably in percentages) and might not translate his college numbers in blocks and steals when learning to play NBA defense, but he’ll score and rebound. What else could you ask for?

  7. Erik said

    @ Dyeyk: Thanks for the kind words. Bottom line is a mock draft is there to gauge how different people are valuing people different players and to see where they get picked in a simulated draft. I refer to the “purity” of our picks in terms of the settings of no trades and no waiver activity. I have gotten to the podium several times while only retaining around 3 of the original guys I drafted. We cannot see or appreciate the full effectiveness of our strategies if we don’t end the season with the people we picked.

    You do have a point regarding the bench. If all drafted slots are played out. You will be at a disadvantage indeed. The problem now is that people are picking their last few picks with the assumption that everyone is going to get played. Well, let’s let that be Nels’ headache! ha ha.

    @ Brendan: That’s pretty much how I was assessing him. I just need to cross my fingers and hope it works out. I’ve learned to dislike the lack of a track record to base my decisions on. I will most likely reap the benefits of my rookie picks further into the season as they get used to PRO play.

    @ Bucko: What intrigues me so much about your strategy is exactly THAT. Moon works for you. No one else stood out, so you go ahead of the pack. It must feel like you don’t have swim against the current of guys who still consider points production in their picks.

    @ Sean: That’s the power of hindsight. It’s easier for me to critique the moves since I’m not in the moment.

  8. dyeyk2000 said

    typo..

    “i don’t think HAVING benches “taints the purity” of the draft”

    sorry haha

  9. Michael said

    Good stuff, Erik. I’ve really liked your analysis so far. BTW, my condolences go out to you and your family. I’m sorry for your loss.

  10. […] 1; ROUND 2; ROUND 3; ROUND 4; ROUND 5; ROUND 6; ROUND 7; ROUND […]

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