Points in the Paint

Fantasy Basketball Opinions, Strategy & Tips

Warning: Draft with Caution!

Posted by Erik on October 21, 2008

They’re out there! Landmines! Players who are O-ranked pretty high over at Yahoo! but are considerable risky picks. Draft them with caution and only at the safest of distances (rounds). Bust material waiting to come to fruition… Watch your step or as the case may be, your reaches!

  • Baron Davis – Yes he had a great season last year. And yes, he DID play all 82 regular season games. He even produced numbers that were statistically superior to Allen Iverson’s. Mildly, but superior nonetheless. But he’s now devoid of Nellie-ball and has to adjust to playing with newer and not as run-and-gun-oriented teammates. Prior to last season’s fluke (?) shortage of DNPs, he was actually one of the poster boys for GP-unreliability. He finished last season in the TOP 10 (7th) of Yahoo! rankings and is currently O-ranked at 13th. Personally, I would prefer to bump him down around 10 spots.
  • Yao Ming – Speaking of poster boys for DNPs… Do I even have to really discuss this one? He’s O-ranked at 23 despite finishing the season at 56th. 23rd pick is waaay too high for anyone to even consider picking Yao. That being said, if you do decide to be cautious about him, odds are the Autopick of the absentee live drafter will snatch him away and conveniently remove him from the draft pool and keep you away from any misguided temptation. Stay away from any “What if this IS finally his 80+ game year?” kind of self-talk. If it is indeed the case by season’s end, then congratulate Yao’s owner for an autopick well done and consider him for the year after. Jeez, he’s even the inspiration for this De-Motivational Poster:

  • Marcus Camby – No one ever likes to draft him early and yet he ends up piling on those boards and blocks. Well at least the last couple of years he did. He was just recently “rudely given away” by the Nuggets management to the LA Clippers. He didn’t want to leave, but the powers that be in the franchise did not consider it financially worth it to pay any luxury taxes this year and it was Marcus’ contract that got the axe. Former coach, George Karl of the Denver Nuggets found a way to keep Camby away from injury. We don’t know if Clips coach, Mike Dunleavy was able to dispatch his ninjas and find that secret yet. Back in Denver, Marcus was the only “man in the middle”, he now has to share the paint with Chris Kaman. How will they jell? We will have to wait and see…
  • Dwight Howard is currently O-ranked at 38th. This is too late to grab him for head to head (big man strats should grab him earlier) and too soon for rotisserie – uh, never is about right for roto. Don’t get blinded by his awesome rebounds, feild goal % and blocks contributions. His will FT% will cost you 11-12 points in that cat alone. Clawing your way to the podium will be a tough challenge to say the least. You will need the free throw percentages and combined attempt-volumes of Dirk, A.I., Kevin Martin, Paul Pierce to even consider Dwight’s FT% as salvageable for roto. If you drafted those guys and intend to pick Corey Maggette a little later on, then Dwight is ok I suppose.
  • Ron Artest – I am not ashamed to admit that I’m a Ron Artest hater. His move to Houston does nothing to improve his value, in my book. Just review his “Jekyll and Hyde”-like indecision on whether he wanted to be traded away prior to the trade’s finalization. Someone spike his Gatorade with a frickin’ Valium! Please! He’s O-ranked 40 in spite of finishing last season at 69th. He appears tempting since we all know that both T-Mac and Yao will miss games as sure as the sun rises in the east, but we can never tell when he (Ron) will just decide to miss a practice or two to quit his rapping hobby and cut a country music album; or when he will charge into the stands to assault the next disrespectful spectator. He’s just too “One Who Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” for my taste. Sorry. Draft him at 40th at your own discretion and risk.
  • Lamar Odom – There’s not much love for Lamar in L.A. lately. The word is that he might see some time coming off the bench this season. And that’s not good news for him and his potential owners, because he needs to warm up on the court and he will need the ball to pass through his hands to do that.
  • Corey Maggette – Don’t start clinging to the thought that he’s a perfect fit for Nellie-ball and get too excited to pick him at 60th, where he is O-ranked at (He finished last season at an effective 77th). Yup he’s O-ranked higher than Capt. Jack! Oh the horror, the travesty! Don’t get me wrong, he is a good fit for the team and so is the system for him. But the fact remains that he most likely will miss at least half or as much time as Monta Ellis. No I am not Nostradamus, but historical and statistical precedence has paved the way for this conclusion. Fine, expecting Cor-Mags to miss a month is a bit too harsh. Make no mistake, however, he will miss sometime. So if you value your players’ games played, draft him with a grain of salt.
  • Jermaine O’Neal – I’m not as high about his idealized career renaissance over Toronto. So looking at how he is currently O-ranked at 72nd after finish the year at an effective 221st. Fine, you might say I should give him a break and consider that he did only play in 42 games last season and appears to be healthier now. OK, well even if you look 2 seasons back, he was healthy enough to play 69 games,  he still just managed to average 43.7 FG%. Somehow I don’t like to see my centers log lower shooting percentages than the average shooting guard in his same draft zone. Excuse me while I swallow some vommit that decided to creep up my throat as I wrote that. He may be serviceable this season, but I have my sincerest doubts that he will be worth a 72nd draft pick.
  • Gilbert Arenas – O-ranked at 110th after finishing 307th, while logging in only 13 painfully horrible games. Don’t try to get sneaky and pick him late with the hopes that you can package his perceived return-upside along with another player and land a trade. Not everyone is that stupid, but hey you might actually find someone. I am not too confident in Agent Zero amounting to much more than his agent number this season. I think he will end the season closer to 307th than 110th. Really. You may expect some decent games from him post-all-star break, but even that expectation has to at least be clouded with some level of uncertainty. I actually peg Monta Ellis, who is O-ranked at 130th to make a speedier comeback.


2 Responses to “Warning: Draft with Caution!”

  1. dyeyk2000 said

    better be wary of this.. just autopicking later. hahaha

  2. Erik said

    Well I hope it helped you in your pre-ranking. 🙂

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