Points in the Paint

Fantasy Basketball Opinions, Strategy & Tips

Posts Tagged ‘Danny Granger’

More Learnings From an NBASE Rookie

Posted by Erik on January 29, 2009

I am now currently 3rd out of 44 in the Stinkytee.com‘s NBASE league. I guess I must be doing somethings right. My team’s not currently overplayed in its positions so that means the players I’ve been playing on my frequently rotating roster have been relatively effective in garnering me those coveted fantasy points. Speaking of which, for those of you who don’t know the NBASE fantasy points system is scored accordingly:

Statistical Category Fantasy Points
Field Goals Missed (FGMI) -0.46
Field Goals Made (FGMA) 0.54
Free Throw Missed (FTMI) -0.75
Free Throw Made (FTMA) 0.25
Points Scored (PT) 0.50
3-point Shots Made (3PT) 1.00
Total Rebounds (REB) 1.50
Assists (AST) 1.99
Steals (ST) 3.00
Turnovers (TO) -2.00
Blocked Shots (BLK) 3.00

So as you can see, defensive numbers are key in gaining some quality headway in this game. Players with good  block and/or steal to turnover ratios are prime candidates to fill any successful team’s roster.

A few weeks ago I decided to invest more than a third of my entire team’s NBASE $ value on one player, Chris Paul. His consistent steal and assist to turnover ratio is second to none in the NBA right now and he provides my team with consistency in that one spot I have him locked in at. I purchased him at around 135-ish NBASE$. You might say that 3 or so guys who are worth 40ish dollars would end up providing higher fantasy point totals combined compared to my singular Chris Paul. Allow me now to reiterate, the key word here is CONSISTENCY. I kind of regret letting go of Chris when awhile back I was able to purchase him at around $89. I used my gains from his increase in price to shuffle through some other players like Tim Duncan, Marcus Camby, and Andre Iguodala. From now until the end of the season, however, I’ve made the decision that CP3 is on my team to stay. I guess I will have to be content to cycle the remainder of my team’s value to ride good matchup trends and slide past injuries. I don’t regret putting so many of my eggs in the CP3 basket. Things are looking up. I just need to keep getting good reads in terms expected statistical performances. The challenge is to ride the players in their highs and sell them off just before they hit low points.

Prior to Danny Granger’s finger and elbow injuries, he and Troy Murphy were both mainstays as complements to my elite PG. I had to sell off Danny when his price dropped drastically $15 is a big drop which connoted a massive sell off. Troy’s low turnover to rebound and steal ratio is excellent. He and Rajon Rondo are currently my mainstays until I can re-purchase Danny G.

I have my eye on reacquiring KG, Tim Duncan, and maybe Vince Carter (yup he’s had several good games with ridiculously low TOs). I will need to buy and sell my guys at just the right time of course. In NBASE, more than any other kind of fantasy basketball game, timing is the everything.

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NBA Week One: First Impressions

Posted by Erik on November 4, 2008

This is a hodge-podge and mish-mosh of some random observations over the course of the NBA’s first week.

Before I begin, let me say that everything here should be taken with a grain of salt. This is, after all, just the first week. Only 2 to 3 games have been played by most players. So all of the ups and downs; and rants and raves you read here are all just first impressions.

Stud Sightings

Chris Paul – Wow! What an awesome PG! Blah, blah, blah… He’s the hands down BEST player in fantasy today. He didn’t get hit by some random meteor from Alpha-Centauri to stop him, so he simply just began the season like he will continue to play the rest of the season – with unadulterated Awesomeness!

Danny Granger – He had an awesome start and almost singlehandedly kick the defending champs in their championship-winning tushies. He has shown that he can do a lot. I just wonder if he can keep up his pace when his partner in crime, Mike Dunleavy rejoins the Pacer line up.

Josh Smith – Want sick? Josh’s stat line over the first couple of games is what’s really sick! 15-10 with 3.5 BPG, 3.5 SPG, 1.5 3PG. Monstrous? Hell yeah! But as I said earlier, take all of these things with a grain of salt. Josh probably won’t be averaging those numbers throughout the season, but damn those numbers really lit up those stat sheets.

Jose Calderon – It appears all the hype and anticipation was well worth the drool-flooding wait. Jose is now truly an elite passing PG. OMG! 79 more games of his efficiency and production, please! 18 PPG at 50% FG, and 9.7 APG is just like the old Steve Nash, only without the cat-killing TOs.

Chris Bosh – You can’t really mention Jose Calderon in a rave section of a post or article without mentioning Chris. You can now add both these guys to the elite PG-PF/C combos. Their names are now in the echelon of Deron-Boozer, CP3-West, Nash-Amare. Scary! 26-10 at 54 FG% and 80 FT% (10 attempts) is definitely nothing to sneeze at.

Andris Biedrins – A couple more months of his production at this level will instantly catapult AB into the elite C status. He’s proving to everyone that he’s indeed worth every penny the GSW decided to pay him. Monster of a C! Wow! I can’t wait to see how he will end up this season in everyone’s rankings.

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Posted in Fantasy Basketball, Linkage, Upside | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

GMTR Mock Draft Analysis: Round 2

Posted by Erik on September 19, 2008

You will have to excuse the varying tables from the previous post to this one. WordPress doesn’t allow cut and paste of XL files into blog posts. So I’ve had to go mucking around on Windows Live Writer for a bit. Anyway, let’s go on with the 2nd round.

ROUND 2

Pick Team Player Position
2-1 Alpha_Terrance Al Jefferson PF/C
2-2 Points  in the Paint Deron Williams PG
2-3 SA Spurscasters Baron Davis PG
2-4 Sexy Time Chauncey Billups PG
2-5 OKC Colon Thunder Gilbert Arenas PG
2-6 GiveMeTheRock Caron Butler SF
2-7 Doneycat Chris Bosh PF/C
2-8 Bucko Marcus Camby C
2-9 REAL Batman Danny Granger SF
2-10 Jeff’s Duncanfaces Steve Nash PG
2-11 2nd Round Reach David West PF
2-12 Epicte Andrew Bynum C

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Posted in Draft Analysis, Draft Resource, Fantasy Basketball | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Draft Strategy: Hedge Picks

Posted by Erik on September 17, 2008

Fantasy Basketball is a stock picking and trading game. Fine we don’t deal in companies, stocks, and futures but instead we deal in the annual performances (statistical productions) of NBA players. We value, rate, and rank them based on past production – their track record if you will. When we draft players, we are investing in what we perceive to be their potential contributions to our fantasy team’s success over other managers’ portfolios.

In the market we play in, our stocks (players) go through the financial concept of volatility as our players’ values go up and down based on their performances, lack thereof, and/or injuries. That’s why a lot of people in the fantasy blog world borrow the financial strategy concepts of “buy low” and “sell high”. Yes it applies. Yes it works. These concepts and their application are already widely accepted by the people who understand the depth and intricacies involved in playing the game.

I now want to discuss another financial strategy and explore its applications in fantasy basketball. It’s called Hedging. What is hedging? How does it apply to me and my fantasy basketball game?

“In finance, a HEDGE is an investment taken out specifically to reduce or cancel out risks in another investment.”

Hedge (finance), Wikipedia

Hedging in Fantasy Basketball

Without some of you knowing it, you probably already practice the concept.

NBA player’s productions are not absolutely consistent. They go through “off nights” or even slumps. When this happens, normally another player on the same NBA team steps up and compensates. A way to reduce the risk of a player’s production slipping for your fantasy basketball team is to pick players on the same NBA team.

Here’s an example. Let’s say you picked Danny Granger somewhere in the 2nd or 3rd round of this year’s draft. You can hedge his expected nightly production by targeting Mike Dunleavy in the 4th or 5th round. Mike now has additional value for YOUR fantasy team that’s not on paper compared to other manager’s teams. Because if either Mike or Danny has an off night, you can expect or hope the other guy will compensate by increasing his contributions. You will odds are feel the hedging benefit more on the categories of points and treys. This hedging move is still a good investment as it does not necessarily sacrifice player draft value since Mike is a reasonable target at the above mentioned rounds.

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Posted in Draft Resource, Fantasy Basketball, Strategy | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Draft Strategy: The First Bounce

Posted by Erik on September 15, 2008

“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.”
“Thus, what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy”
“The clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy, but does not allow the enemy’s will imposed on him.”
“Let your plans be dark and as impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”

~ Sun Tzu, The Art of War

“I love it when a plan comes together.”

~ Col. John “Hannibal” Smith, The A-Team

It’s always good to have a “battle plan”. An idea on how you want to approach picking the players for your fantasy basketball team. The first two to three players in your Fantasy Basketball draft will invariably be the core of your fantasy basketball team. I wanted to zoom in and focus on the strategy of picking the first two; “the first bounce” in your fantasy draft. These 2 picks can set the tone for the strategy you intend to follow for the remaining rounds.

Strategy #1: Drafting for Value

Some experts would say that is how you should draft for the first 3 rounds.  Get the best guy available to you once it gets to your turn and balance out the positions needed in later rounds. This is especially easier if you’re in early (top 5) draft position. Things are pretty much straightforward as you draft for value and have your pick of the cream of the crop. The first 5 players represent the hands down tier 1 players of their position.  This is where names like Chris Paul (PG), Kobe Bryant (SG), LeBron James (SF), Amare Stoudemire (PF/C) come to mind. So you now you’ve gotten your hands on one of Fantasy NBA’s finest, come second round what do you do? You can proceed and get the “best” player that lands on your lap. You can consider particulars like position played and stats contributed. You can then start your “reaching” for guys in the 3rd round as you have the initiative to do so.

Middle to late position: In the first round the hands-down best guys are taken. You’re now left making to value judgements as to who you feel is the BEST player to pick. Values begin to get more debatable, but if you’ve done your homework this shouldn’t be too much of a problem for you. The second round should be as easy as the first as you still have a decent selection of players to choose from. In fact if you’re in the last two positions, you have the initiative to get 2 of the best quality second rounders whose combined value can be arguably comparable to the team who may have an early 1st round choice but will be left with the lesser quality 2nd round options.

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Posted in Draft Resource, Fantasy Basketball, Strategy | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Draft Strategy: Pre-Ranking Your Guys

Posted by Erik on September 12, 2008

I enjoyed  GMTR’s Draft Tip #6: Queue It Up. So I decided to pick up the ball and run with it. Thanks for the dish guys. Let’s see if I can drive to the hoop and score some points in the paint with it.

I wanted to write something for the new/rookie Fantasy Basketball players…

So you may have heard from around the net or from your buddies that they either don’t like Yahoo’s O-Rankings or at least don’t follow it blindly. So you want to be a smart fantasy player and decide to Pre-Rank the NBA players before the draft day.

Here’s a list of 20 (and ONE Bonus) questions  that you can ask yourself to help you with that task.

  1. Do you think Kobe’s decision NOT to undergo surgery on his pinkie will affect his fantasy performance this year?
  2. Was Dwyane Wade’s Olympic performance enough to convince you that he’s physically ready to return to TOP 10 form?
  3. Will Dallas’ new up-tempo offense orientation be good for Dirk’s already consistent stats?
  4. Do you see Elton Brand returning to his old 20-10-2 ways? Will playing in the 76ers affect the said production?
  5. How much of the old Phoenix-Shawn Marion do you expect to see in a potentially full season with the Heat?
  6. Is Gilbert Arenas healthy enough to contribute sick fantasy numbers for your team this year… and for how many games?
  7. Is Baron Davis capable of repeating last year’s 82 game performance now that he’s in LA?
  8. Are you willing to gamble that this year may be the year Yao Ming plays 75+ games?
  9. Can coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. keep Marcus Camby away from injury as well as George Karl did back in Denver?
  10. Do you expect Deron Williams to exceed Steve Nash’s fantasy value this season?
  11. Is Danny Granger over hyped coming into this fantasy season?
  12. How is Kevin Martin’s groin? I’m kidding! Don’t check it personally, I think he showed it’s fully healed even before the end of last season.
  13. Does Caron Butler’s history of DNPs bother you enough to rank him lower than his contributions merit?
  14. With Andrew Bynum returning to the Laker lineup, do you foresee Pau Gasol’s stats taking a hit?
  15. Do you see Vince Carter as a good Fantasy contributor now that both Kidd and Rich-Jeff are gone?
  16. How well do you figure Rudy Gay will perform now that Mike Miller’s been traded away?
  17. What do you expect Monta Ellis to do at point for GSW once he recovers from his injury?
  18. Do you expect to see enough of Jose Calderon’s Ford-less games from last year to warrant him a big bump this year?
  19. Will playing alongside LBJ be good or bad for Mo Williams’ stats?
  20. Can Andrew Bynum pick up where he left off from last year’s break out season before his season abruptly ended due to injury?

Bonus: If/When Zach Randolph gets traded away, how much more fantasy impact do figure David Lee will have?

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Posted in Draft Resource, Fantasy Basketball, Strategy | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Adding Fuel to the Fire!

Posted by Erik on September 11, 2008

Battle of Last Season’s Break-out Studs

Who will finish THIS season as the better fantasy pick Danny Granger or Rudy Gay?

Here’s the final installment in the mini-series I ended up doing of “Who’s your pick?” player spotlights.

BD and Gil were the PGs, Boozer and Big Al were the PF/Cs. I decided to round out the G/Fs with a couple of guys who are steadily climbing up the rankings and cheat sheets this Pre-Season: Danny Granger & Rudy Gay. Their stat lines are arguably comparable and the question of who’s got the better outlook for this season is debatable.

Both of these ultra-athletic phenoms are emerging superstars on bad teams. Ok fine, “bad” is a little bit too mean to call the Pacers and Grizzlies. Let’s be a little bit more PC (politically correct) and call them rebuilding franchises instead. Better?

Anyway, I’m digressing here. Both of these multiple category contributors are the cornerstones of each of their team’s “BIG 3” Ok fine, that was a stretch. Neither team has a “Big 3” per se, but a similar set of young players that they will be counting on to produce this season. Let’s call them the Pacers and Grizzlies’ “Mini-3”, shall we?

Pacers: T.J. Ford, Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger

Grizzlies: Mike Conley, OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay

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Posted in Draft Resource, Fantasy Basketball, Strategy | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Player Movement

Posted by Erik on June 28, 2008

TRADES

Richard Jefferson for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons – The NETS are clearing cap space for an eventual bid to woo LBJ into their ranks and are making an investment (?) for the future in what they perceive to be a quality big man in Yi. Well, as far as Yi goes, I’m still a bit of a skeptic. So far he’s been 20% hype, 30% unfulfilled potential, 15% injured, 35% promising; as far as I can rate him based on last year’s performance. Based on last season’s real life and fantasy impact, he’s looking more Kwame Brown than Yao Ming so far… I guess the NETS are hoping he will emerge from his rookie cocoon as viable frontcourt presence. This move doesn’t really change the fantasy values of the players involved as far as I’m concerned. RJ was a proven, dependable, scoring swingman back in NJ, but he mostly had Kidd to get him the ball and run the offense for the team. I think he will fit in nicely running the floor alongside Michael Redd and Charlie Villanueva. Charlie will be the greatest fantasy beneficiary of this trade as his biggest playing time (PT) competitor at the PF slot has been shipped off. More playing time for Charlie, hopefully translates to better fantasy production. Fantasy managers like myself are waiting to see him reproduce his multi-cat production from his break out Toronto season.

Jermaine ONeal for TJ Ford and Rasho Nesterovic – Off the top, the big fantasy winner in this transaction isn’t even involved in it, and that’s Danny Granger. Danny shined everytime JO wasn’t playing, which was pretty much most of the season anyway. The Pacers are now HIS team and I expect this Multi-cat Monster to just explode this season. TJ guarantees a backcourt presence, especially since Jamal Tinsley has not been exactly the poster boy for consistent health in the past. I suppose two injury-prone PGs are better than one. On the other end of the deal, its Jose Calderon who I expect to benefit the most from this deal. With Ford gone, Calderon will now have license to dish out those assists of his with extreme prejudice. JO can now play mini Twin Towers with Chris Bosh and provide Toronto with its much needed frontcourt depth. JO was frankly slumping – well fine, more like downward spiraling fantasywise prior to this trade. I’m personally not holding my breath for a dramatic turnaround,  but hey, he could surprise his naysayers and turn a new leaf now that he’s in a new team playing in a new system.

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