Points in the Paint

Fantasy Basketball Opinions, Strategy & Tips

Posts Tagged ‘Marcus Camby’

More Learnings From an NBASE Rookie

Posted by Erik on January 29, 2009

I am now currently 3rd out of 44 in the Stinkytee.com‘s NBASE league. I guess I must be doing somethings right. My team’s not currently overplayed in its positions so that means the players I’ve been playing on my frequently rotating roster have been relatively effective in garnering me those coveted fantasy points. Speaking of which, for those of you who don’t know the NBASE fantasy points system is scored accordingly:

Statistical Category Fantasy Points
Field Goals Missed (FGMI) -0.46
Field Goals Made (FGMA) 0.54
Free Throw Missed (FTMI) -0.75
Free Throw Made (FTMA) 0.25
Points Scored (PT) 0.50
3-point Shots Made (3PT) 1.00
Total Rebounds (REB) 1.50
Assists (AST) 1.99
Steals (ST) 3.00
Turnovers (TO) -2.00
Blocked Shots (BLK) 3.00

So as you can see, defensive numbers are key in gaining some quality headway in this game. Players with good  block and/or steal to turnover ratios are prime candidates to fill any successful team’s roster.

A few weeks ago I decided to invest more than a third of my entire team’s NBASE $ value on one player, Chris Paul. His consistent steal and assist to turnover ratio is second to none in the NBA right now and he provides my team with consistency in that one spot I have him locked in at. I purchased him at around 135-ish NBASE$. You might say that 3 or so guys who are worth 40ish dollars would end up providing higher fantasy point totals combined compared to my singular Chris Paul. Allow me now to reiterate, the key word here is CONSISTENCY. I kind of regret letting go of Chris when awhile back I was able to purchase him at around $89. I used my gains from his increase in price to shuffle through some other players like Tim Duncan, Marcus Camby, and Andre Iguodala. From now until the end of the season, however, I’ve made the decision that CP3 is on my team to stay. I guess I will have to be content to cycle the remainder of my team’s value to ride good matchup trends and slide past injuries. I don’t regret putting so many of my eggs in the CP3 basket. Things are looking up. I just need to keep getting good reads in terms expected statistical performances. The challenge is to ride the players in their highs and sell them off just before they hit low points.

Prior to Danny Granger’s finger and elbow injuries, he and Troy Murphy were both mainstays as complements to my elite PG. I had to sell off Danny when his price dropped drastically $15 is a big drop which connoted a massive sell off. Troy’s low turnover to rebound and steal ratio is excellent. He and Rajon Rondo are currently my mainstays until I can re-purchase Danny G.

I have my eye on reacquiring KG, Tim Duncan, and maybe Vince Carter (yup he’s had several good games with ridiculously low TOs). I will need to buy and sell my guys at just the right time of course. In NBASE, more than any other kind of fantasy basketball game, timing is the everything.

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NBA Week One: First Impressions

Posted by Erik on November 4, 2008

This is a hodge-podge and mish-mosh of some random observations over the course of the NBA’s first week.

Before I begin, let me say that everything here should be taken with a grain of salt. This is, after all, just the first week. Only 2 to 3 games have been played by most players. So all of the ups and downs; and rants and raves you read here are all just first impressions.

Stud Sightings

Chris Paul – Wow! What an awesome PG! Blah, blah, blah… He’s the hands down BEST player in fantasy today. He didn’t get hit by some random meteor from Alpha-Centauri to stop him, so he simply just began the season like he will continue to play the rest of the season – with unadulterated Awesomeness!

Danny Granger – He had an awesome start and almost singlehandedly kick the defending champs in their championship-winning tushies. He has shown that he can do a lot. I just wonder if he can keep up his pace when his partner in crime, Mike Dunleavy rejoins the Pacer line up.

Josh Smith – Want sick? Josh’s stat line over the first couple of games is what’s really sick! 15-10 with 3.5 BPG, 3.5 SPG, 1.5 3PG. Monstrous? Hell yeah! But as I said earlier, take all of these things with a grain of salt. Josh probably won’t be averaging those numbers throughout the season, but damn those numbers really lit up those stat sheets.

Jose Calderon – It appears all the hype and anticipation was well worth the drool-flooding wait. Jose is now truly an elite passing PG. OMG! 79 more games of his efficiency and production, please! 18 PPG at 50% FG, and 9.7 APG is just like the old Steve Nash, only without the cat-killing TOs.

Chris Bosh – You can’t really mention Jose Calderon in a rave section of a post or article without mentioning Chris. You can now add both these guys to the elite PG-PF/C combos. Their names are now in the echelon of Deron-Boozer, CP3-West, Nash-Amare. Scary! 26-10 at 54 FG% and 80 FT% (10 attempts) is definitely nothing to sneeze at.

Andris Biedrins – A couple more months of his production at this level will instantly catapult AB into the elite C status. He’s proving to everyone that he’s indeed worth every penny the GSW decided to pay him. Monster of a C! Wow! I can’t wait to see how he will end up this season in everyone’s rankings.

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Posted in Fantasy Basketball, Linkage, Upside | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Warning: Draft with Caution!

Posted by Erik on October 21, 2008

They’re out there! Landmines! Players who are O-ranked pretty high over at Yahoo! but are considerable risky picks. Draft them with caution and only at the safest of distances (rounds). Bust material waiting to come to fruition… Watch your step or as the case may be, your reaches!

  • Baron Davis – Yes he had a great season last year. And yes, he DID play all 82 regular season games. He even produced numbers that were statistically superior to Allen Iverson’s. Mildly, but superior nonetheless. But he’s now devoid of Nellie-ball and has to adjust to playing with newer and not as run-and-gun-oriented teammates. Prior to last season’s fluke (?) shortage of DNPs, he was actually one of the poster boys for GP-unreliability. He finished last season in the TOP 10 (7th) of Yahoo! rankings and is currently O-ranked at 13th. Personally, I would prefer to bump him down around 10 spots.
  • Yao Ming – Speaking of poster boys for DNPs… Do I even have to really discuss this one? He’s O-ranked at 23 despite finishing the season at 56th. 23rd pick is waaay too high for anyone to even consider picking Yao. That being said, if you do decide to be cautious about him, odds are the Autopick of the absentee live drafter will snatch him away and conveniently remove him from the draft pool and keep you away from any misguided temptation. Stay away from any “What if this IS finally his 80+ game year?” kind of self-talk. If it is indeed the case by season’s end, then congratulate Yao’s owner for an autopick well done and consider him for the year after. Jeez, he’s even the inspiration for this De-Motivational Poster:

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Stinky Tee’s Expert’s League (Roto Format)

Posted by Erik on October 19, 2008

I was invited to join the Stinky Tee’s Expert’s League. I was pretty honored when I read the email in my inbox asking if I was interested, as I don’t really see myself as much of an expert at all. Just an avid fantasy-head, really.

The league was set-up over at Yahoo! It’s a 12-man roto format, with 9-cat array, and 13 roster spots (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C x2, Util x2, Bench x 3). We just finished our live draft several of hours ago.

The Rotisserie format is all about building a BALANCED team. For roto, I wanted to have a team with reasonably good percentages because those 2 cats are generally injury resistant. I also didn’t want to ignore TOs. So I thought of patterning my draft close to 2RR’s H2H draft over at the GMTR mock, but without punting treys. As I formulated this game plan, I suddenly realized – or more like remembered – how challenging roto drafting can be!

This is my first roto draft for the season and I considered myself pretty rusty as I have been preparing mostly for H2H leagues recently. Yes both formats are THAT much different!

All 12 managers made it to the live draft! This was nice, but at the same time I found myself missing the reliable O-rank auto-pick predictability of the absentee drafter. So this was definitely more challenging than your garden variety public league. That’s for sure.

I was a bag of nerves as I had just woken up and didn’t have any coffee in my system yet. – I know it’s not a convenient excuse to draft poorly – So sue me!

I found myself with 2nd drafting position. Here’s how my draft went.

1. (2) Amare Stoudemire – You can’t really go wrong with the “Best Center” in fantasy hoops to start off your team. Other people might have preferred to pick Kobe or LeBron at this spot, but I figure Man-beast is of comparable quality and has the added bonus of being C eligible.

I generally like picking a PG and a C in my first 2 picks so I had my eye on Chauncey Billups and Jose Calderon. But I also was thinking of grabbing David West like Brendan (of 2RR) did at the mock or even Kevin Martin who I am really high on for this year. In hindsight I should have picked either of them instead of getting locked on the best O-ranked player available which was…

2. (23) Jose Calderon – I know that he would probably been available in the 3rd and would be good to put up efficient guard stats (projections of: 9.4 APG, 1.2 3PG, 1.4 SPG 1.5 TOs) at 50% FG and 90 FT%. After CP3 I rate him as the 2nd best model of efficiency at the PG position. I am higher on his upside than on Chauncey’s expected downside. If I went for KevMart or David West at this spot and committed to grab JC in the 3rd I probably wouldn’t have been tempted to grab…

3. (26) Marcus Camby – I know the “experts” are not too hot about him this year – then again when were they ever?. Camby in the 3rd is a fair downgrade to match all the worries. And I said to myself, “This is ROTO! GPs aren’t as critical here as in H2H.” As long as Camby gives me 11.5 boards while swatting 2.8 balls a night (notice I projected a downgrade from last year), over 60+ games then his totals are pretty decent. Plus his 1.5 TOs were just too sexy to resist! Ha Ha Ha!

So my laughter subsided, when I realized I just bounced 2 effective “non-scorers” in Jose and Marcus. With low TOs come low point contributions… Oh well, it’s been 3 rounds and I think I can still salvage this. At this point I want some Treys to balance my big man + assists numbers. I had Hedo on queue, coz his 5 dimes are just sexy like that. Unfortunately he got picked before my turn came, so I chose a reasonable alternative in…

4. (47) Mike Dunleavy – Just the right three point shooter that the doctor ordered for my team, Ultra-efficient. Fantastic FT% (83.4) and how many guys can toss the ball from behind the arc twice per game and still maintain 47.6 FG%? I like this pick. At this point I was looking to bounce to another worthwhile scorer to improve on that cat. I had Michael Redd on target but I changed my mind at the last minute and chose to go with;

5. (50) Andre Miller – Yes I know he’s NOT a scorer and his scoring will go down even further now that Elton Brand’s in town. His 49 FG% from the guard position was just so tasty to pass up in the fifth. Mo-will and Devin Harris were taken in the 4th; and Dre was the last guy from my tier 4 PG list who was available. It’s too bad he can’t shoot treys. No worries though, as I was able to grab

6. (71) Mike Miller – Another solid 3-point shooter who has great FG% (50.2 last season). He’s a solid rebounder and a decent passer. I like my Mikes. This one, I expect to do well in Minny. I expect him to get a lot of kick-out passes as the opposing defense collapses on Al-Jeff. On the flipside, he’s got a good enough court sense to find Big Al when he’s open and drop him a couple of dimes every now and then. I feel my treys are more solid now. It’s just that I feel that I’ve ignored points a bit too much.

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GMTR Mock Draft Analysis: Round 2

Posted by Erik on September 19, 2008

You will have to excuse the varying tables from the previous post to this one. WordPress doesn’t allow cut and paste of XL files into blog posts. So I’ve had to go mucking around on Windows Live Writer for a bit. Anyway, let’s go on with the 2nd round.

ROUND 2

Pick Team Player Position
2-1 Alpha_Terrance Al Jefferson PF/C
2-2 Points  in the Paint Deron Williams PG
2-3 SA Spurscasters Baron Davis PG
2-4 Sexy Time Chauncey Billups PG
2-5 OKC Colon Thunder Gilbert Arenas PG
2-6 GiveMeTheRock Caron Butler SF
2-7 Doneycat Chris Bosh PF/C
2-8 Bucko Marcus Camby C
2-9 REAL Batman Danny Granger SF
2-10 Jeff’s Duncanfaces Steve Nash PG
2-11 2nd Round Reach David West PF
2-12 Epicte Andrew Bynum C

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Draft Strategy: Pre-Ranking Your Guys

Posted by Erik on September 12, 2008

I enjoyed  GMTR’s Draft Tip #6: Queue It Up. So I decided to pick up the ball and run with it. Thanks for the dish guys. Let’s see if I can drive to the hoop and score some points in the paint with it.

I wanted to write something for the new/rookie Fantasy Basketball players…

So you may have heard from around the net or from your buddies that they either don’t like Yahoo’s O-Rankings or at least don’t follow it blindly. So you want to be a smart fantasy player and decide to Pre-Rank the NBA players before the draft day.

Here’s a list of 20 (and ONE Bonus) questions  that you can ask yourself to help you with that task.

  1. Do you think Kobe’s decision NOT to undergo surgery on his pinkie will affect his fantasy performance this year?
  2. Was Dwyane Wade’s Olympic performance enough to convince you that he’s physically ready to return to TOP 10 form?
  3. Will Dallas’ new up-tempo offense orientation be good for Dirk’s already consistent stats?
  4. Do you see Elton Brand returning to his old 20-10-2 ways? Will playing in the 76ers affect the said production?
  5. How much of the old Phoenix-Shawn Marion do you expect to see in a potentially full season with the Heat?
  6. Is Gilbert Arenas healthy enough to contribute sick fantasy numbers for your team this year… and for how many games?
  7. Is Baron Davis capable of repeating last year’s 82 game performance now that he’s in LA?
  8. Are you willing to gamble that this year may be the year Yao Ming plays 75+ games?
  9. Can coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. keep Marcus Camby away from injury as well as George Karl did back in Denver?
  10. Do you expect Deron Williams to exceed Steve Nash’s fantasy value this season?
  11. Is Danny Granger over hyped coming into this fantasy season?
  12. How is Kevin Martin’s groin? I’m kidding! Don’t check it personally, I think he showed it’s fully healed even before the end of last season.
  13. Does Caron Butler’s history of DNPs bother you enough to rank him lower than his contributions merit?
  14. With Andrew Bynum returning to the Laker lineup, do you foresee Pau Gasol’s stats taking a hit?
  15. Do you see Vince Carter as a good Fantasy contributor now that both Kidd and Rich-Jeff are gone?
  16. How well do you figure Rudy Gay will perform now that Mike Miller’s been traded away?
  17. What do you expect Monta Ellis to do at point for GSW once he recovers from his injury?
  18. Do you expect to see enough of Jose Calderon’s Ford-less games from last year to warrant him a big bump this year?
  19. Will playing alongside LBJ be good or bad for Mo Williams’ stats?
  20. Can Andrew Bynum pick up where he left off from last year’s break out season before his season abruptly ended due to injury?

Bonus: If/When Zach Randolph gets traded away, how much more fantasy impact do figure David Lee will have?

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Who do you like, Baron Davis or Gilbert Arenas?

Posted by Erik on September 8, 2008

You’re in the tail end of the 1st round or somewhere early in the second and you feel like picking up a high scoring PG. Dwyane Wade and Allen Iverson have been picked ahead of you so your left with the choice of picking either B-diddy or Agent Zero. Who would you pick?

Gilbert Arenas was a former 1st round shoe-in, an elite scorer who loved to light it up from beyond the arc. He’s was a point or two shy of averaging 30 PPG through the 04-06 seasons, while averaging at least 2.5 treys and 6 assists a night; factor in 1.95 SPG and you had an elite PG to say the least. Unfortunately, he was sidelined for most of last season due injury. He played injured and his stats took a dive like you wouldn’t believe. In spite of last year’s performance, or lack there of, for that matter; the Washington Wizards signed him to the biggest deal in the NBA over the off season – $111M over 6 years. Is he healthy enough now to return to his old form? He’s had the summer to hopefully recuperate to 100%, but he doesn’t have Dwyane Wade’s Olympic stint to prove that he’s past last season’s injuries. Until training camp actually begins, we still have no clear and definitive picture of Gil’s recovery. He says he’s healthy, but his late season attempted comback only ended in more damage to his body and production. Well he’s coming back to pretty much the same team he left early last season so he shouldn’t have any problems gelling with his old teammates.

Baron Davis, on the other hand, has never really been 1st round material but he ended last season’s performance like monster of a first rounder. He averaged 21.8 PPG, 7.6 APG, 2.3 SPG and 2.1 treys a game, thriving under coach Don Nelson’s up-tempo, run-and-gun offense. Sweet line? Well the stat of all stats for the new Baron of LA is that he played in all 82 games last season, his first above 70 games since his junior NBA year way, way back in the 01-02 season.  He stated before last season started that he was in the best health of his career and his 82 GPs must have been a juicy meal his doubters had to eat along with huge serving of STFU sauce. This former (?) injury-prone PG left the Golden State Warriors and signed with the L.A. Clippers to be its new centerpiece. So it’s a new team, new coach, and a fresh start for Baron to prove that he’s worth the fat contract he signed. He obviously won’t be quarterbacking a small ball offense anymore with Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman (Both Centers) being the 2nd and 3rd best players, respectively, on his new team. He’s definitely got more to prove than Arenas but there are more changed variables in his status. Can his skills, motivation and competitive spirit carry him to another awesome fantasy performance this year?

OK so both of these guys roughly shoot just as terribly from the feild, pretty much in the low 40s. Gil’s got the sweeter FT% at 80+ (8 attempts) vs 75+  (5 attempts), but Baron’s got the better passing ability and playmaking skills – by a margin of at least 2 more dishes a game. They both turn the ball over at least 2.5-3 times a night and look to average arounfd 2 treys and 2 steals an outing. Gil’s the superior scorer and has the overall better health track record, but as I said Baron’s been recently in the BEST health of his career and is in a new team where he can arguably up his PPG to about 24-26 a night.

Hmm…. this is a tough one, isn’t it? I would generally want to stay away from both of these guys from this year’s draft altogether due to that dreaded injury risk hanging over both of their heads. But if there was a gun to my head and I really had to take an early risk on one of these guys on this year’s draft, I guess I would personally have to pick Arenas. I have him edging Baron out ever so slightly based on his superior FT%, the stability of his team, finally his performance and health 2 years running prior to his injury. But that’s my pick, who’s yours?

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Consolation Prize or Upgrade?

Posted by Erik on July 16, 2008

Camby now a Clipper

Camby now a Clipper

The L.A. Clippers, somehow pull off a miracle and land a TOP quality center in the form of Marcus Camby, from the Denver Nuggets. They got him in exchange for the option to exchange 2nd round picks in 2010. (More on NBA.COM)

WTF?!? Yup, that was pretty much my initial reaction… Man, talk about getting something for nothing. This trade is up there with the Pau Gasol – Kwame Brown exchange of last season. I guess the Nuggets are giving up on a shot at the playoffs this season… well I suppose they are reorienting their plans for the future. I’m pretty sure they could have gotten a much better deal for parting with such a solid defender as Camby. Hmmm… I wonder what the Nugget management was smoking when this deal went down? In fairness to them, it IS a bit too early to spell out what they are planning for the franchise’s future. There are still moves and deals they can make before the season begins to get them on track to make a run for the playoffs this year.

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Posted in NBA News & Rumors | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Year End Wrap-up

Posted by Erik on April 8, 2008

Yes, my blog died. It died a sad, sad death. It was abandoned. Over a month or so of neglect has pretty much killed it and driven away its regular readership. Health issues and other distractions kept me away from continually spicing things up. That being said I owe you, my regular readers, an apology. I also owe Rick, my only contributor, a serious apology for not even spending enough time to be able to review and publish his now stale posts; in my absence. Sorry man, “real life” took a bite out of my blog time.

I guess my dream to do consistent fantasy blogging has been dowsed – pretty much like Phoenix’s formerly scorching up-tempo offense.

Well inconsistency IS an issue you deal with rookies…

I guess there’s always next year…” – I’m sure that that also resonates in the minds of players in teams that are NOT making the playoffs and are off to the lottery to seek for fresh blood to build/re-build their beleaguered franchises around.

Well the year isn’t over yet. I dragged my aching bones out of bed and decided I might as well be one of the early birds who will recap the fantasy year that was. So I might as well do it, do it now, and go out with a BANG! So let’s get this party started…

In Fantasy Hoops LeBron maybe KING, but Chris Paul is a Fantasy GOD!

LeBron can really put up those fantasy numbers and even stuns fans and managers alike with his occasional, sick triple-doubles. He and Kobe Bryant made great MVP rivals throughout the season. Both superstars were great this year, but let’s address the big white elephant in the room. Who would have thought it possible that from the ashes of the Deron vs Chris Paul debates would arise the hands down BEST fantasy basketball player around today? Well I had an inkling it was coming. You all know about the sick, sick – did I mention SICK? – numbers CP3 churns out. If you own him, you obviously know what I mean as you watch him stamp his seal as being the number one PG in fantasy ball night in and night out. If you don’t own him, you can wipe that drool off your slobbering chops as you scheme on how to make sure you acquire him next year! He single handedly takes the top spot as having the biggest fantasy swing impact coming from this year’s draft. Come on! Who can resist 21 PPG at 49.6 FG% (awesome for a PG), 85,2% FT, 11.5 APG, 2.7 SPG? Plus don’t forget he leads the league with most games with 20+ points and 15+ assists… interesting stat for head to head players out there. It would be incomplete to appreciate Chris Paul’s “Stockton-like” (as his numbers closely resemble John Stockton’s all-time numbers) stats without giving some credit to his “Malone”. David West quietly produced a monster of a year in terms of stats in his own right, as he set new career averages in points, rebounds, blocks and FT%. David’s great performance simply reflects, again, on how great a player CP3 really is; as it shows that Chris has that knack that only the greatest players of the game (Magic, Jordan, Bird, Nash) have – the ability to make his teammates BETTER.

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