Points in the Paint

Fantasy Basketball Opinions, Strategy & Tips

Posts Tagged ‘Mike Dunleavy’

Fortuity: How a Yahoo! Glitch Got Me Mike Dunleavy

Posted by Erik on January 11, 2009

I recently started cashing in on my investment of taking a gamble on Mike Dunleavy Jr. (G/F) of the Indiana Pacers in my 18-man, head to head league (daily changes setting). He’s looking good, especially after that 22 point performance against  the Lakers off the bench. I can foresee him taking back his starting role in the next game or so.

What’s interesting about is that the thing, more like incident, that prompted me to make the move; was seeing Mike get picked up from the wires in my 13-man roto. There aren’t many active managers in that league and I guess a lot of managers didn’t really care to sit on him.

Seeing that pick-up was enough osmosis moxy for me to go ahead and risk a few games lost in the daily changes H2H.

Ironically, shortly after the news broke out (on Yahoo! player news & notes) that Mike was up to 20 minutes of practice, a glitch occurred. For a brief period, the old news of him being “out indefinitely due to tendonitis in his knee”, started to show when you clicked on that little envelope beside his name. It was the old December-ish posting that somehow, for some reason, got re-posted. If you were following the Mike Dunleavy news closely during that time, you know what I mean.

drunk-dunleavy

The guy who inspired me pick him, quickly dropped his acquisition for a sadly underwhelming Fransisco Garcia. This was fortuity at it’s finest. I was the most active manager with the best waiver priority. I got to grab Mike for a T.J. Ford I no longer had the patience to wait to be healthy. Yes, he was the least productive guy on my roster. A hopefully healthy Mike Dunleavy is obviously a far superior choice for my G spot (that’s GUARD slot, in case you are thinking of commenting something witty) than Ford any day!

I just find it ironic that someone else’s impatience paid off for me. I’m normally the one who’s impulsive and impatient when it comes to players.

I am fourth in the 13-man roto, trying to break into the “podium zone” and 4th to the last in the 18-man head to head; so I’m really counting on Mike’s last year’s performances to come back and his knee to hold up – because I can use all the help I can get.

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Posted in Fantasy Basketball, Rave, Upside | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

Chicken!

Posted by Erik on December 31, 2008

I’ve been really getting a better appreciation of the differences between daily and weekly changes over at my Yahoo! leagues. The fact that you can use the games of your bench guys in a daily roster change setting means that you can’t really afford to sit on injured guys. The leagues that I’m in that are set to daily changes all have max moves set so that people can’t “stream” players to their hearts’ content and so that fantasy teams aren’t managed in a Steve Kerr or Isaiah Thomas kind of way.

There is definitely more tactical combat involved in a daily roster changes league.

In the 10-man, “Battle of the Bloggers” league I’m in, I am around 8th or 9th out of 10 beacause I had to sit on the early season injuries of Deron Williams and Kevin Martin – basically my 2nd and 3rd round picks. Ouch! – yeah tell me about it. I took the hits but am getting ready to comeback and grab some W’s now that Deron and Kevin are getting healthy again.

In the 18-man head to head league that’s also set to daily roster changes where I am 13th, the likes of Gilbert Arenas, Monta Ellis, and Mike Dunleavy are all lounging around in the free agent pool. They’re just waiting for someone to take a gamble on their hopeful return to NBA action. Gil and Monta have both been picked up, kept for sometime, then dropped again as managers have difficulties living with one less effective roster spot on their teams. Watching them sit in the FA pool is like playing a game of “Chicken” with their injuries. Everyone wants to pick them up, but only at exactly the right time. Grab ’em too soon and your team is in for some losing weekly matchups. Wait on them too long and some other, gutsier schmuck will get acquire their fantasy services before you do. It’s a mini-game of balls and nerves.

chicken

Who you callin' a Chicken?

I recently caved and grabbed Mike Dunleavy off free agency. I am hoping that he will be up to speed or at least serviceable form in about 2 weeks. The news that he’s practicing for up to 20 minutes and that he’s involved in team scrimmages got the wishful bone in me itching to take a gamble on him. His recent viral infection is a minor setback. I am more concerned about how the rehab on his knees is progressing his eventual return to action.  Monta Ellis may be at least 2 more weeks away, but Mike looks like he will have the bigger impact – at least from the perspective of how much his team needs him. The Pacers really want their offense.

mma

So I’m crossing my fingers and locking down the hatches and tightening my belt – you get the point – that my team can sneak some wins here and there as we wait for Mike Dunleavy’s hopefully imminent return.

Speaking of Chicken… a few hours after I grabbed Mike, some other manager panicked and decided to grab Agent Zero as well. Some people just can’t handle the pressure of a game of Chicken, I suppose.

Carlos Boozer is going under the knife to solve his knee problems, but somehow I doubt that we will be seeing him in that particular free agent pool as he was drafted in the late first round; and that puts him on the “cant cut list”. Man, that must really sting for his fantasy owner in that league. Can’t trade him; can’t drop him; and so he’s basically just  dead roster weight.

P.S.

Have a Happy New Year! May 2009 bring a lot less NBA injuries…


Posted in Fantasy Basketball, Injuries | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

No Longer The Name BRAND We Once Knew

Posted by Erik on December 19, 2008

Things just went from bad to worse for the Philadelphia 76ers. Elton Brand is out for one month. He dislocated his shoulder and actually both a minor tear and fracture. He doesn’t require surgery but WILL need the time off for his shoulder to heal.

... and I drafted Elton Brand as my first round pick!

... and I drafted Elton Brand as my first round pick!

Tack on this missed time to the time he’s already lost for your fantasy teams during his strained hamstring episode and compound it with his more than underwhelming contributions; and you officially have yourself the biggest fantasy bust-to-date. Both his shooting percentages, his points, and blocks are showing far too much contrast from the expectations people had for him coming into this season. 44.7% from the field at 15.9 PPG is not what his owners were drafting him for in the middle of the first round of their fantasy drafts.

I chose him over Mike Dunleavy mainly because of his much higher draft position at the beginning of the season. I’ll gripe and whine about Mike in some other rant post. But, for now folks, Brand owners are some of the biggest losers in Fantasy Basketball today. Fantasy Basketball is such an emotinal rollercoaster at times. I was happy I unloaded Elton due to his poor performances. Then the Sixers fire coach Cheeks and Elton has a respectable game. Then I wished I was more patient. Elton’s now out for a month and now I’m glad I was lucky enough to get some value for him.

Well the season’s not over yet; and it would be a vile shame to see another player unseat him from this position.

storm-of-sadness1

I guess we will see some of last year’s Sixers in action. Look to Thaddeus Young, Louis Williams, Willie Green and perhaps even Marreese Speights (who? He’s the guy comes it at power forward for the Sixers every once in awhile when they suffer a blow-out loss.) to contribute some efforts to make up fro Brand’s absence. They won’t have coach Cheeks to guide them through this period. Let’s hope that the fresh perspective in the coaching huddle can slap together some wins in the meantime.

Thad Young might see a return to the starting line-up. He will have a chance to redo his efficient scoring start this season. Well while it lasted, before he got sent to the bench.

Expect bigger contributions from Andre Iguodala and Andre Miller. Andre will be the biggest fantasy beneficiary as he’s now back to the “Go to guy” position he held last year for the team.

Samuel Dalembert is still a big question mark as far as I am concerned. I am not sure how he can realign his game to be the sole man-in-the-middle for Philly (at least for a month); Both he and Elton have been hugely disappointing for their owners.

Posted in Injuries, Rant | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Underwhelming Beginnings and Early Slumps

Posted by Erik on November 16, 2008

Sorry guys. I know it has been awhile. I’m having a crap of a time trying to juggle blogging and work and home life lately.

It’s really frustrating. I miss blogging… a lot. Hopefully this week will give me some openings to get some extra blog time.

Anyway, I’ve had this one on queue for some time because I wanted enough games to pass in order to accurately claim that these players’ starts are truly underwhelming. As each game rolled on, however, some guys flirted with being on this list while others left it. This isn’t a “Buy Low” kind of list per se. Well it can be if you feel the stars are properly aligned for these guys to bounce back and strong. It’s simply a list of some  players that I had expected to play at a certain level but are not quite living up to my expectations.  Here we go…

The MATRIX Unplugged

Shawn Marion (Heat) – I suppose it’s finally official; the Matrix is no longer the stud who used to drop numbers all over the stat sheet at an efficient clip that he used to be. Ironically, his health reliability has also taken a hit as well. Based on the 7 games he’s played in, Shawn he has managed to show that he does have some “D” left in him but his boards, points, treys, and gawd-awful FG% have taken hits. His feild goal percentage is a full 8.5 points down, while his FT% is 10.2 points down from the Phoenix Marion we once knew, loved, and drafted early in the first round. He just doesn’t get the same open looks he used to get when Nash was feeding him the ball on the break. It may take some time for him to learn how to work well with Dwyane Wade, but regardless of when and how he jels with the rest of the Miami Heat; he will still end up closer to a 2nd rounder’s value as opposed to a Top 10 pick.

Parallel Peaks and Valleys

Speaking of the team and teammates Shawn Marion left behind, Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire (Suns) aren’t really making the kind of fantasy noise people were expecting them to make out of the gate.

Steve Nash has had a sluggish start so far, putting together a string of sub par games as of late. In the 9 games he’s played to date, Steve’s managed to drop his points (down 4.6 PPG), FG (down 5%), assists (down 3.7). and treys (down 0.8). Is his slump caused by the loss of former coach Mike D’Antoni? Is it his age (34)? Is it a combination of both? Is it global warming? Is it going to get better? For God’s sakes, man! Wake up, Steve!

Amare Stoudemire did start out strong and even got a Monster of a game under his belt. He’s not exactly part of the list. Recently, however, Amare’s been missing the effectiveness and efficiency of his PG’s game and assists. He’s had a string of 3 poor games. Here’s his line for the last 3 games, 13.7 PPG at a horrible 40.4 FG%; 6.7 RPG and 3.7 TOs/G. Let’s hope this is just a slump and that he isn’t truly dependent on Steve Nash’s quality performances.

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Posted in Fantasy Basketball | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

NBA Week One: First Impressions

Posted by Erik on November 4, 2008

This is a hodge-podge and mish-mosh of some random observations over the course of the NBA’s first week.

Before I begin, let me say that everything here should be taken with a grain of salt. This is, after all, just the first week. Only 2 to 3 games have been played by most players. So all of the ups and downs; and rants and raves you read here are all just first impressions.

Stud Sightings

Chris Paul – Wow! What an awesome PG! Blah, blah, blah… He’s the hands down BEST player in fantasy today. He didn’t get hit by some random meteor from Alpha-Centauri to stop him, so he simply just began the season like he will continue to play the rest of the season – with unadulterated Awesomeness!

Danny Granger – He had an awesome start and almost singlehandedly kick the defending champs in their championship-winning tushies. He has shown that he can do a lot. I just wonder if he can keep up his pace when his partner in crime, Mike Dunleavy rejoins the Pacer line up.

Josh Smith – Want sick? Josh’s stat line over the first couple of games is what’s really sick! 15-10 with 3.5 BPG, 3.5 SPG, 1.5 3PG. Monstrous? Hell yeah! But as I said earlier, take all of these things with a grain of salt. Josh probably won’t be averaging those numbers throughout the season, but damn those numbers really lit up those stat sheets.

Jose Calderon – It appears all the hype and anticipation was well worth the drool-flooding wait. Jose is now truly an elite passing PG. OMG! 79 more games of his efficiency and production, please! 18 PPG at 50% FG, and 9.7 APG is just like the old Steve Nash, only without the cat-killing TOs.

Chris Bosh – You can’t really mention Jose Calderon in a rave section of a post or article without mentioning Chris. You can now add both these guys to the elite PG-PF/C combos. Their names are now in the echelon of Deron-Boozer, CP3-West, Nash-Amare. Scary! 26-10 at 54 FG% and 80 FT% (10 attempts) is definitely nothing to sneeze at.

Andris Biedrins – A couple more months of his production at this level will instantly catapult AB into the elite C status. He’s proving to everyone that he’s indeed worth every penny the GSW decided to pay him. Monster of a C! Wow! I can’t wait to see how he will end up this season in everyone’s rankings.

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Posted in Fantasy Basketball, Linkage, Upside | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Of Caffeine Crashes and Gag Reflexes: My GMTR Readers’ League Team

Posted by Erik on October 22, 2008

Let me start off with my B.S. excuses as to why I drafted so poorly.

  1. Unlike for all the other drafters present, the draft was at 9 A.M., my time.
  2. I woke up late
  3. I was harassed to make it to work on time.
  4. Grabbed a few cans of Mountain Dew and some grub to wake up my brain for the draft, thus risking being late even more. – stress levels were building up at this point.
  5. Drank the said beverages too quickly – 10 mins before the draft began. – Was now wired as hell.
  6. Was looking over my shoulder every few minutes as I actually had some work to do while the draft was ongoing.

After the draft was over I had to proceed with the rest of the day and with it my responsibilities at work. After I pissed away the caffeine from my body, I crashed and felt like crap. I took a look at my team and felt a bit of vomit  gurgle and griggle as if it wanted to come and slap me in the face for drafting a team like I did.

This isn’t false humility at all. I ended up drafting a “Not-so-big-ball” team. No it isn’t “Midball” either – just in case any of you want to get funny.

But WTF, is a “not-so-big-ball” team? Patience, all will be revealed in the end.

I was in 7th Draft Position. I’ve always felt the mid positions had the least control, and I’ve never been too happy drafting in the middle of the mob. And boy, was I ever in the midst of a mob of mean, monster-drafters!

The first 4 picks went pretty much as predictably as you can set your atomic clock by the certainty that Yao Ming won’t play 70 games this season.

“Mr. Defending Champ”, Patrick of GMTR, shocked us all by picking Marion at 5th! Elton Brand got picked 6th, and I was now in a conundrum as to either pick Dirk or KG!

Round 1 (Pick 7) Dirk Nowitzki – An excellent choice for a big to go with almost any type of small ball strat! He hardly misses any games and looks quite hungry this season to go for that elusive championship. Whether he achieves his goal or not is for another story altogether and another blog post. My point is, he’s motivated. So I now had my eye on Chauncey and Danny Granger, but alas, they both went before my 2nd round pick came around. By the way, so did Deron Williams. Yes folks, bad sprain and all. So I was left with reaching for Steve Nash or Rashard Lewis. Baron Davis was on the board but it’s my policy to stay clear of injury risks. I also found it way too early to go for Jose Calderon or even J-Rich!

I don’t know what came over me. As I ended up reaching for;

Round 2 (Pick 18) David West – I decided to go for another PF who shoots at decent percentages and doesn’t turn the ball over too much. I should have gone with Kevin Martin at this point, or even a Steve Nash pick wouldn’t have been so bad. Oh well, it wasn’t such a bad pick. I actually have David on my upside list this year.

“So big-ball it is.”, I told myself. “Ok let’s not force the small guys, but get some bigs with good FT% and hopefully we can get something going here.”

Enter gag reflex moment, stage left;

Round 3 (Pick 31) Yao Ming – I’m an idiot. I’m a moron. I got enchanted by Mr. 50 Games Played’s 80+ FT% and commited an unforgivable mortal sin. Yup, I’m the knucklehead who drafted Yao Ming in the 3rd round. I’m the guy I normally snicker at during live drafts. I’m the dork who now has to find some spiritual link with an omnipotent force in the universe to beg for Yao to play more games than Tom Brady. This should have been Andrew Bynum, Brad Miller or heck even Agent Zero games played ’til ’09.

What the hell was I thinking? Really?

I don’t really know at this point.

I’m going to try and blame being too wired on too much Mountain Dew or something. But we all know that’s just a load of B.S. right there.

Ugh!

How retarded is it to trash your own pick in your own blog?

Never mind.

Let’s move on.

Please?

Round 4 (Pick 42) Mike Dunleavy – Great percentages (46 FG%) for a 3-point shooting guard…

Mike, I’m sorry but I’m not in the mood rave about my picking you while I still have some 2-week old egg-foo-yuck, trying to come up my esophagus.

Oh, to hell with this crap!

This is not cathartic at all.

Let’s just finish this.

This, I guess, is blogging in its purest form;

No real editing, just writing as the thoughts come to mind.

I can’t really see my team that clearly right now. I suppose it’s both the caffeine crash and the Yao pick.

I’m sorry readers. Unsubscribe to PitP. I won’t blame you. There’s nothing I can say or do that will ever re-earn your respect with regards to fantasy hoops.

Here’s my team as a whole, round by agonizing round, well after the 2nd at least. The guys in BLUE are the picks I’m pretty happy with at their spots. The guys in RED are the picks I’m not too happy about. The uncolored picks, I’m simply lukewarm about.

  1. Dirk Nowitzki – 7th pick
  2. David West – 18th pick
  3. Yao Ming – 31st pick
  4. Mike Dunleavy – 42nd pick
  5. LaMarcus Aldridge – 55th pick
  6. Jason Terry – 66th pick
  7. Tony Parker – 79th pick
  8. Anthony Parker – 90th pick
  9. J.R. Smith – 103rd pick
  10. Ricky Davis – 114th pick
  11. Luis Scola – 127th pick – If I didn’t draft Yao in the first place, I wouldn’t have had to reach for Scola at this spot!
  12. Andray Blatche – 138th pick
  13. Earl Watson – 151st pick

In a nutshell, I suppose you can say my team is modeled after my first round pick, Dirk. It’s got some bigs who really don’t rebound or block much but shoot at good percentages; it’s relatively light on the TOs and it shoots treys. It doesn’t have any real passing or steals in the mix.

Just before I hit the Publish button, I’d just like to say that I’m not a quitter. I’m going to make up for my drafting blunders, fighting tooth and nail. I’m glad I can still trade and work the wire as the season progresses. It ain’t over ’til its over! And believe me, I’m gonna bring it.

For a more informative and insightful run down of his team, read Jedi’s more level headed analyis of his team.

Brendaaaaan! Buddy! Please do a complete league breakdown at 2RR so I can least watch someone else trash my team. I just can’t stomach to do it myself.

I’m going to take some painkillers (as I don’t have any Valium handy) and go to bed now. Hopefully this will all feel like bad dream tomorrow.

Posted in Draft Analysis, Fantasy Basketball, Rant | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Stinky Tee’s Expert’s League (Roto Format)

Posted by Erik on October 19, 2008

I was invited to join the Stinky Tee’s Expert’s League. I was pretty honored when I read the email in my inbox asking if I was interested, as I don’t really see myself as much of an expert at all. Just an avid fantasy-head, really.

The league was set-up over at Yahoo! It’s a 12-man roto format, with 9-cat array, and 13 roster spots (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C x2, Util x2, Bench x 3). We just finished our live draft several of hours ago.

The Rotisserie format is all about building a BALANCED team. For roto, I wanted to have a team with reasonably good percentages because those 2 cats are generally injury resistant. I also didn’t want to ignore TOs. So I thought of patterning my draft close to 2RR’s H2H draft over at the GMTR mock, but without punting treys. As I formulated this game plan, I suddenly realized – or more like remembered – how challenging roto drafting can be!

This is my first roto draft for the season and I considered myself pretty rusty as I have been preparing mostly for H2H leagues recently. Yes both formats are THAT much different!

All 12 managers made it to the live draft! This was nice, but at the same time I found myself missing the reliable O-rank auto-pick predictability of the absentee drafter. So this was definitely more challenging than your garden variety public league. That’s for sure.

I was a bag of nerves as I had just woken up and didn’t have any coffee in my system yet. – I know it’s not a convenient excuse to draft poorly – So sue me!

I found myself with 2nd drafting position. Here’s how my draft went.

1. (2) Amare Stoudemire – You can’t really go wrong with the “Best Center” in fantasy hoops to start off your team. Other people might have preferred to pick Kobe or LeBron at this spot, but I figure Man-beast is of comparable quality and has the added bonus of being C eligible.

I generally like picking a PG and a C in my first 2 picks so I had my eye on Chauncey Billups and Jose Calderon. But I also was thinking of grabbing David West like Brendan (of 2RR) did at the mock or even Kevin Martin who I am really high on for this year. In hindsight I should have picked either of them instead of getting locked on the best O-ranked player available which was…

2. (23) Jose Calderon – I know that he would probably been available in the 3rd and would be good to put up efficient guard stats (projections of: 9.4 APG, 1.2 3PG, 1.4 SPG 1.5 TOs) at 50% FG and 90 FT%. After CP3 I rate him as the 2nd best model of efficiency at the PG position. I am higher on his upside than on Chauncey’s expected downside. If I went for KevMart or David West at this spot and committed to grab JC in the 3rd I probably wouldn’t have been tempted to grab…

3. (26) Marcus Camby – I know the “experts” are not too hot about him this year – then again when were they ever?. Camby in the 3rd is a fair downgrade to match all the worries. And I said to myself, “This is ROTO! GPs aren’t as critical here as in H2H.” As long as Camby gives me 11.5 boards while swatting 2.8 balls a night (notice I projected a downgrade from last year), over 60+ games then his totals are pretty decent. Plus his 1.5 TOs were just too sexy to resist! Ha Ha Ha!

So my laughter subsided, when I realized I just bounced 2 effective “non-scorers” in Jose and Marcus. With low TOs come low point contributions… Oh well, it’s been 3 rounds and I think I can still salvage this. At this point I want some Treys to balance my big man + assists numbers. I had Hedo on queue, coz his 5 dimes are just sexy like that. Unfortunately he got picked before my turn came, so I chose a reasonable alternative in…

4. (47) Mike Dunleavy – Just the right three point shooter that the doctor ordered for my team, Ultra-efficient. Fantastic FT% (83.4) and how many guys can toss the ball from behind the arc twice per game and still maintain 47.6 FG%? I like this pick. At this point I was looking to bounce to another worthwhile scorer to improve on that cat. I had Michael Redd on target but I changed my mind at the last minute and chose to go with;

5. (50) Andre Miller – Yes I know he’s NOT a scorer and his scoring will go down even further now that Elton Brand’s in town. His 49 FG% from the guard position was just so tasty to pass up in the fifth. Mo-will and Devin Harris were taken in the 4th; and Dre was the last guy from my tier 4 PG list who was available. It’s too bad he can’t shoot treys. No worries though, as I was able to grab

6. (71) Mike Miller – Another solid 3-point shooter who has great FG% (50.2 last season). He’s a solid rebounder and a decent passer. I like my Mikes. This one, I expect to do well in Minny. I expect him to get a lot of kick-out passes as the opposing defense collapses on Al-Jeff. On the flipside, he’s got a good enough court sense to find Big Al when he’s open and drop him a couple of dimes every now and then. I feel my treys are more solid now. It’s just that I feel that I’ve ignored points a bit too much.

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Posted in Draft Analysis, Draft Resource, Fantasy Basketball | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

GMTR Mock Draft Analysis: Round 4

Posted by Erik on September 22, 2008

At this point it should be very clear what the drafters are up to – well at least to them it should. Whether they’re going for a balanced, well rounded team or whether they have isolated and targeted specific categories to dominate or at least be competitive in; the drafters have chosen and locked the cornerstones for the teams they intend to build. Remember this is 9-cat, head to head.

ROUND 4

Pick Round Fantasy Team Player Position
37 4-1 Alpha_Terrance Carmelo Anthony SF
38 4-2 Points in the Paint Paul Pierce SF
39 4-3 SA Spurscasters Andre Iguodala SG
40 4-4 Sexy Time Yao Ming C
41 4-5 OKC Thunder Jason Richardson SG
42 4-6 GiveMeTheRock Vince Carter SG
43 4-7 Doneycat Mike Dunleavy SF
44 4-8 Bucko Ray Allen SG
45 4-9 REAL Batman Brad Miller C
46 4-10 Jeff’s Jawai-nots Hedo Turkoglu SF
47 4-11 2nd Round Reach Andre Miller PG
48 4-12 Epicte Ron Artest SF

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Posted in Draft Analysis, Draft Resource, Fantasy Basketball | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments »

Draft Strategy: Hedge Picks

Posted by Erik on September 17, 2008

Fantasy Basketball is a stock picking and trading game. Fine we don’t deal in companies, stocks, and futures but instead we deal in the annual performances (statistical productions) of NBA players. We value, rate, and rank them based on past production – their track record if you will. When we draft players, we are investing in what we perceive to be their potential contributions to our fantasy team’s success over other managers’ portfolios.

In the market we play in, our stocks (players) go through the financial concept of volatility as our players’ values go up and down based on their performances, lack thereof, and/or injuries. That’s why a lot of people in the fantasy blog world borrow the financial strategy concepts of “buy low” and “sell high”. Yes it applies. Yes it works. These concepts and their application are already widely accepted by the people who understand the depth and intricacies involved in playing the game.

I now want to discuss another financial strategy and explore its applications in fantasy basketball. It’s called Hedging. What is hedging? How does it apply to me and my fantasy basketball game?

“In finance, a HEDGE is an investment taken out specifically to reduce or cancel out risks in another investment.”

Hedge (finance), Wikipedia

Hedging in Fantasy Basketball

Without some of you knowing it, you probably already practice the concept.

NBA player’s productions are not absolutely consistent. They go through “off nights” or even slumps. When this happens, normally another player on the same NBA team steps up and compensates. A way to reduce the risk of a player’s production slipping for your fantasy basketball team is to pick players on the same NBA team.

Here’s an example. Let’s say you picked Danny Granger somewhere in the 2nd or 3rd round of this year’s draft. You can hedge his expected nightly production by targeting Mike Dunleavy in the 4th or 5th round. Mike now has additional value for YOUR fantasy team that’s not on paper compared to other manager’s teams. Because if either Mike or Danny has an off night, you can expect or hope the other guy will compensate by increasing his contributions. You will odds are feel the hedging benefit more on the categories of points and treys. This hedging move is still a good investment as it does not necessarily sacrifice player draft value since Mike is a reasonable target at the above mentioned rounds.

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Posted in Draft Resource, Fantasy Basketball, Strategy | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Adding Fuel to the Fire!

Posted by Erik on September 11, 2008

Battle of Last Season’s Break-out Studs

Who will finish THIS season as the better fantasy pick Danny Granger or Rudy Gay?

Here’s the final installment in the mini-series I ended up doing of “Who’s your pick?” player spotlights.

BD and Gil were the PGs, Boozer and Big Al were the PF/Cs. I decided to round out the G/Fs with a couple of guys who are steadily climbing up the rankings and cheat sheets this Pre-Season: Danny Granger & Rudy Gay. Their stat lines are arguably comparable and the question of who’s got the better outlook for this season is debatable.

Both of these ultra-athletic phenoms are emerging superstars on bad teams. Ok fine, “bad” is a little bit too mean to call the Pacers and Grizzlies. Let’s be a little bit more PC (politically correct) and call them rebuilding franchises instead. Better?

Anyway, I’m digressing here. Both of these multiple category contributors are the cornerstones of each of their team’s “BIG 3” Ok fine, that was a stretch. Neither team has a “Big 3” per se, but a similar set of young players that they will be counting on to produce this season. Let’s call them the Pacers and Grizzlies’ “Mini-3”, shall we?

Pacers: T.J. Ford, Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger

Grizzlies: Mike Conley, OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay

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