Points in the Paint

Fantasy Basketball Opinions, Strategy & Tips

Posts Tagged ‘Tim Duncan’

More Learnings From an NBASE Rookie

Posted by Erik on January 29, 2009

I am now currently 3rd out of 44 in the Stinkytee.com‘s NBASE league. I guess I must be doing somethings right. My team’s not currently overplayed in its positions so that means the players I’ve been playing on my frequently rotating roster have been relatively effective in garnering me those coveted fantasy points. Speaking of which, for those of you who don’t know the NBASE fantasy points system is scored accordingly:

Statistical Category Fantasy Points
Field Goals Missed (FGMI) -0.46
Field Goals Made (FGMA) 0.54
Free Throw Missed (FTMI) -0.75
Free Throw Made (FTMA) 0.25
Points Scored (PT) 0.50
3-point Shots Made (3PT) 1.00
Total Rebounds (REB) 1.50
Assists (AST) 1.99
Steals (ST) 3.00
Turnovers (TO) -2.00
Blocked Shots (BLK) 3.00

So as you can see, defensive numbers are key in gaining some quality headway in this game. Players with good  block and/or steal to turnover ratios are prime candidates to fill any successful team’s roster.

A few weeks ago I decided to invest more than a third of my entire team’s NBASE $ value on one player, Chris Paul. His consistent steal and assist to turnover ratio is second to none in the NBA right now and he provides my team with consistency in that one spot I have him locked in at. I purchased him at around 135-ish NBASE$. You might say that 3 or so guys who are worth 40ish dollars would end up providing higher fantasy point totals combined compared to my singular Chris Paul. Allow me now to reiterate, the key word here is CONSISTENCY. I kind of regret letting go of Chris when awhile back I was able to purchase him at around $89. I used my gains from his increase in price to shuffle through some other players like Tim Duncan, Marcus Camby, and Andre Iguodala. From now until the end of the season, however, I’ve made the decision that CP3 is on my team to stay. I guess I will have to be content to cycle the remainder of my team’s value to ride good matchup trends and slide past injuries. I don’t regret putting so many of my eggs in the CP3 basket. Things are looking up. I just need to keep getting good reads in terms expected statistical performances. The challenge is to ride the players in their highs and sell them off just before they hit low points.

Prior to Danny Granger’s finger and elbow injuries, he and Troy Murphy were both mainstays as complements to my elite PG. I had to sell off Danny when his price dropped drastically $15 is a big drop which connoted a massive sell off. Troy’s low turnover to rebound and steal ratio is excellent. He and Rajon Rondo are currently my mainstays until I can re-purchase Danny G.

I have my eye on reacquiring KG, Tim Duncan, and maybe Vince Carter (yup he’s had several good games with ridiculously low TOs). I will need to buy and sell my guys at just the right time of course. In NBASE, more than any other kind of fantasy basketball game, timing is the everything.

Posted in Fantasy Basketball | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

The Woeful Spurs

Posted by Erik on November 9, 2008

It’s not as if the San Antonio Spurs were doing great while waiting on the recovery of their star SG, Manu Ginobili. It’s not as if Tim Duncan’s in the his prime nor is he a LeBron James, who on sheer talent and athleticism singlehandedly dispatch opposing teams.

After Tony Parker’s monster game where he scored 55 points and chipped in other juicy fantasy numbers, he then sprained his ankle. He is now projected to miss 2-4 weeks of precious NBA and fantasy time.

What’s now left of the carcass, formerly known as the San Antonio Spurs? Well it still has its centerpiece, center Tim Duncan. Can you actually call a centerpiece a “centerpiece”  if it’s not at the center of anything to speak of? – Sorry Coach Popps, you’ve really got to work your coaching magic and steal some wins on Tim and lot’s of fans’ prayers.

Fantasy Impact

Aside from the obvious damage Tony Parker’s time missed will cause to his owners, there are several other repurcussions to this turn of events.

Let’s start with the man in the middle. Intuitively, you may assume that Time Duncan will now be great fantasy boon. Please curb your enthusiasm. Yes, he will have some good games as he tries to keep his team above water. You do have to realize, however, that the Spurs’ opponents can simply double, triple, quadruple (this won’t be necessary) team him and shut him down – translating into episodes of poor production and high turnovers. On a more positive note, not all teams have the big man talent to properly contain him; like the Thunder and the Pacers, for example.

Roger Mason will now step out of the shadows of the Spurs bench and be the “number 2” guy for the Spurs. Sadly, number 2 is as far as it will go. I’ll get back to that point. Roger is still young and lacks experience on the floor. He will be there to provide an outside threat and be a target for Tim to kick out the ball when he is doubled. He will gets some dimes on his stat sheet as Tim is always a decent assist target. On the other side of the coin, he will get a ton of turnovers and have erratic shooting from the field as he gets used to his increased role and extended minutes. Pick him up. He is odds are, the best in terms of temporary upside on the wires.

Michael Finley was a former offensive force back in the other Texas team he used to play for, but sadly the operative word here is former. He may have a few brief moments where he will shine as he will be asked to dig deep and come up strong for the team. He will be inconsistent and he should only be picked up in the deepest of leagues and with caution to boot.

The rest of the what’s left: Ime Udoka, Anthony Tolliver, and Matt Bonner will have to step up their games for the Spurs to even hit an above-60 point production every night. Keep your eyes peeled on who turns out like gold (?) – well copper will do for now.

Posted in Fantasy Basketball, Injuries | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Upside Speculation

Posted by Erik on October 25, 2008

I’ve taken some time off after my rant about my GMTR Readers’ League team. I then went to see my therapist; who went to see his therapist and HIS therapist said that I should focus more on positive things. Think of beautiful images so that I can regain my positive outlook and my smile!

Jeez! and these guys charge by the hour…

What’s done is done. It’s time to move on.

And since fantasy draft weekend is just around the corner I decided to focus on something positive, well on a lot of things positive.

I suppose I’ve been reading a little too much GMTR (well apparently not enough, otherwise I should have picked Yao in the 8th round, where he belongs) <Stop! Let it go!> – anyway where was I? Oh yeah, a little too much GMTR (Is there such a thing?)… Pat has me conditioned to let go of the word Sleeper from my basketball blogging lexicon. A player is no longer a sleeper, if his name is plastered all over the interweb’s sleeper lists… Duh!

As much as I wanted to come up with my “sleeper central” I decided to veer away from such labels.

Since I told my therapist’s therapist that I will start to think positive…. and what’s more positive in fantasy than UPSIDE?

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Posted in Draft Resource, Fantasy Basketball, Upside | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

GMTR Mock Draft Analysis: Round 3

Posted by Erik on September 21, 2008

Ok now managers’ strategies are becoming a bit clearer, or not. The third and fourth rounds should round out the cores of their fantasy teams.

ROUND 3

Pick Round Fantasy team Player Position
25 3-1 Epicte Rashard Lewis SF
26 3-2 2nd Round Reach Jose Calderon PG
27 3-3 Jeff’s Jawai-nots Tim Duncan PF/C
28 3-4 REAL Batman Jason Kidd PG
29 3-5 Bucko Rasheed Wallace PF/C
30 3-6 Doneycat Kevin Martin SG
31 3-7 GiveMeTheRock Antawn Jamison PF
32 3-8 OKC Thunder Brandon Roy PG/SG
33 3-9 Sexy Time Joe Johnson PG/SG
34 3-10 SA Spurscasters Dwight Howard C
35 3-11 Points in the Paint Rudy Gay SF
36 3-12 Alpha_Terrance Pau Gasol PF/C

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Posted in Draft Analysis, Draft Resource, Fantasy Basketball | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Draft Strategy: The First Bounce

Posted by Erik on September 15, 2008

“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.”
“Thus, what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy”
“The clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy, but does not allow the enemy’s will imposed on him.”
“Let your plans be dark and as impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”

~ Sun Tzu, The Art of War

“I love it when a plan comes together.”

~ Col. John “Hannibal” Smith, The A-Team

It’s always good to have a “battle plan”. An idea on how you want to approach picking the players for your fantasy basketball team. The first two to three players in your Fantasy Basketball draft will invariably be the core of your fantasy basketball team. I wanted to zoom in and focus on the strategy of picking the first two; “the first bounce” in your fantasy draft. These 2 picks can set the tone for the strategy you intend to follow for the remaining rounds.

Strategy #1: Drafting for Value

Some experts would say that is how you should draft for the first 3 rounds.  Get the best guy available to you once it gets to your turn and balance out the positions needed in later rounds. This is especially easier if you’re in early (top 5) draft position. Things are pretty much straightforward as you draft for value and have your pick of the cream of the crop. The first 5 players represent the hands down tier 1 players of their position.  This is where names like Chris Paul (PG), Kobe Bryant (SG), LeBron James (SF), Amare Stoudemire (PF/C) come to mind. So you now you’ve gotten your hands on one of Fantasy NBA’s finest, come second round what do you do? You can proceed and get the “best” player that lands on your lap. You can consider particulars like position played and stats contributed. You can then start your “reaching” for guys in the 3rd round as you have the initiative to do so.

Middle to late position: In the first round the hands-down best guys are taken. You’re now left making to value judgements as to who you feel is the BEST player to pick. Values begin to get more debatable, but if you’ve done your homework this shouldn’t be too much of a problem for you. The second round should be as easy as the first as you still have a decent selection of players to choose from. In fact if you’re in the last two positions, you have the initiative to get 2 of the best quality second rounders whose combined value can be arguably comparable to the team who may have an early 1st round choice but will be left with the lesser quality 2nd round options.

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Posted in Draft Resource, Fantasy Basketball, Strategy | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »